US Economic Roundup – Better Employment, Better Manufacturing, Still No Signs Of InflationNovember 21, 2013
In today’s US economic releases, we saw signs of a rebound in employment (with a caveat), a pick up in manufacturing activity, and another data point signalling low inflation.
Initial jobless claims dropped by 21k to 323k. The caveat here is last week was a shortened week due to Veteran’s Day, which increases the effects of adjustments to this series. The good news is the 4-week moving average also fell.
Two data points relating to manufacturing were released. The more positive of the two was Markit’s Flash Manufacturing PMI data series which jumped to an 8-month high. Since this summer, the Markit PMI has been well below the ISM Manufacturing PMI so this may be a sign that these series are converging.
The other manufacturing data point was the Philly Fed Survey. The Philly Fed Survey fell but remained positive indicating expansion in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing region. While it remained positive, it should be noted that the first two regional fed surveys for November (Empire Fed survey was released last week) have come in below expectations.
And finally, the year-over-year change in the Producer Price Index remained at 0.3%. Similar to the CPI release yesterday, the energy component remains a depressant on prices. The year-over-year change in Core PPI ticked up slightly to 1.36%.