Blog

Stronger USD or Higher Inflation Expectations? October 21, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Over the last four years, the derived inflation expectation of 30 year US Treasury bonds have moved in tandem with US Dollar.  When the USD falls, inflation expectations rise, and when the USD rises, inflation expectations fall. Since mid-September, the US Dollar Index has fallen from over 82 to under 80.

Read More

The Company We Keep October 18, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

QuestionWhat are speculators long right now? Answer1) Stocks – from the E-mini S&P500, to the E-mini NASDAQ, to the E-mini Dow, to the E-mini Russell 2000 QuestionWhat are speculators short right now?

Read More

Short Rates Plunge October 17, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

In reaction to the deal to avert the debt ceiling, short rates have slammed back down.  The one month bill peaked at 35bps on Tuesday and is back down to 1bp today.

Read More

More Positive Data Out of the UK October 17, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Today’s better than expected Retail Sales data follows a number of other positive releases:Will the improvements in employment, consumer confidence, house prices, and the Markit manufacturing survey be reflected in next week’s GDP release?Data for Q3 will be updated on Friday, October 25th:

Read More

Will the Boom-Bust Barometer Bounce? October 17, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The Boom-Bust Barometer (Commodity Prices/Unemployment Claims) has had a very high correlation with stock prices over the past decade. The rise in unemployment claims has driven it lower. We will wait to see if the end of the government shutdown will bring unemployment claims back down. It was only modestly lower this week (-15k).

Read More