In keeping with the familiar trend among European data releases, Germany appears to be the lone bright spot in an otherwise lackluster survey of economic sentiment:
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We’ve noted before the recent underperformance of ”defensive growth” stocks (Health Care and Consumer Staples stocks) so we thought we’d dive into the details to get a better understanding for the drivers of this relatively sudden turn in performance, since these two sectors (and Health Care in particular) have performed admirably this cycle.
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One of the tech high flyers the last few years has been Teradata, who sells software to cloud data centers. Today the target price was cut from $75 to $45 and the stocks is down almost 17%, making it the worst performer in the tech sector.
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The latest data from the OECD leading indicators shows that growth in Europe seems to be gaining momentum (except for Sweden and Switzerland) while in Asia growth is below trend (except for Japan and South Korea).
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Over the last month, gold companies have been among the weakest performeres in the MSCI World Index. On average they are down 9.4% over the last 30 days. They also top our ranking for the biggest drop in 30 day relative strength.
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There has been much discussion in recent years of the leverage buildup in the Chinese corporate sector and the problems (or not) that this will (or won’t) create, so we thought we’d chime in with some quantitative data and let the reader make his or her own conclusions.
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In spite of a better than expected monthly rise in production (in August), industrial activity in the five largest European countries continues to contract on a yearly basis– with the exception of Germany:And the recent tick down in the PMI Manufacturing survey would not suggest much of a reason to hope for material improvement in
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In addition to following price levels of the major stock indices, we like to look at various measures of stock market breadth to get a feeling for the level of broad participation in rallies or declines.
Read MoreNew monetary policies like QE have muddied the water somewhat when looking at monetary aggregates like M2. We have a simple adjustment we make to M2 to improve the optics on bank credit.
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One of the statistics that we like to look at to understand investor enthusiasm for a given sector is the percentage of stocks that are trading above their respective moving average over a variety of time slices (50-Day, 100-Day, 200-Day).
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