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Treasuries Yields Slammed Lower as Safe Havens Catch Bid October 22, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

10 year treasury yields finished 9bps lower on the day today hitting the lowest level since mid-July while gold, silver, copper and the euro all caught a decent bid.  The divergence between S&P 500 futures and the 10 year note is now at the most extreme in a month.

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What’s Wrong With This Picture? October 22, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The MSCI World index is back to within 2% of an all-time high.  Meanwhile the employment to population ratio in the US is languishing at levels not seen since 1983.  In 1983, the Billboard top song was Every Breath You Take by the Police.

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Gold Stocks Lead Gains October 22, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

With the price of gold up another $23 today, after surging $40 last week, gold stocks are the leaders in the MSCI World index today. Adding fuel to the move is the plunge in the USD today, stepping down by half a point so far this morning.

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Japanese Real Exports Stagnate Again October 21, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

At the heart of Abenomics is the presumption (or hope?) that a lower yen will stimulate export volume. Indeed September exports denominated in yen were up about 11.5% year over year. But real exports were up just .4%.

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MSCI North America Extended October 21, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

We calculate the percentage of companies above certain moving averages (MA).  Generally, when 70-80% of companies are above a MA, stocks are overbought and when only 20-30%, are above a MA, stocks are oversold. Currently, 89% of MSCI North America companies are above the 5-day MA, 84% are above the 50-day MA.

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Stronger USD or Higher Inflation Expectations? October 21, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Over the last four years, the derived inflation expectation of 30 year US Treasury bonds have moved in tandem with US Dollar.  When the USD falls, inflation expectations rise, and when the USD rises, inflation expectations fall. Since mid-September, the US Dollar Index has fallen from over 82 to under 80.

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