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European Industrial Production October 14, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

In spite of a better than expected monthly rise in production (in August), industrial activity in the five largest European countries continues to contract on a yearly basis– with the exception of Germany:And the recent tick down in the PMI Manufacturing survey would not suggest much of a reason to hope for material improvement in

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US Private Bank Credit Contracting October 14, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

New monetary policies like QE have muddied the water somewhat when looking at monetary aggregates like M2.  We have a simple adjustment we make to M2 to improve the optics on bank credit.

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The FRB is the Mortgage Market October 14, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Over the last year, between the FRB and commercial banks, around $500 billion in net new real estate credit has been extended.  That is the good news.  The concerning part is that the FRB has accounted for over 100% of all real estate credit created.

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Currency Checklist Suggests Stronger USD October 11, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The US Dollar (USD) has turned against the Euro…check. It has turned against the GBP…check. It has turned against the Yen…check. It has turned against the Swiss franc…check. And, lastly it has turned against gold…check.

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North American Growth Expectations October 11, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Over the next 4 years, the Energy sector has the highest hurdle to clear in terms of growth expectations of any sector in the MSCI North American index. Looking back at the past 10 years, the double-digit sales growth expectation seems feasible.

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Plunging European Inflation October 11, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Inflation in the Spain and Italy is plunging at rates reminiscent of 2008-2009. From StreetAccount:Draghi says ECB guidance allows rate cuts on volatility: Bloomberg cited comments from ECB President Draghi, who said that the central bank’s pledge to maintain rates at low levels explicitly allows for cuts in lending costs if market volatility resumes.

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Back To The Beta Trade? October 11, 2013

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Over the last three months, the ”beta trade” has been on.  We slice all 1,600 companies in the MSCI World index into deciles from lowest beta to highest, and then we measure the performance of each decile.

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