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Forward Thinking: 2022 January 06, 2022

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Knowledge Leaders, Markets, Portfolio Management

In this quarter’s strategy report, Forward Thinking 2022, we discuss the following: -US economic growth is expected to be quite robust in 2022, despite the disruptions from the Omicron variant. Capital spending is expected to lead economic growth, which makes sense as companies invest in…

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Is the Market Looking Through the Current Inflation? December 09, 2021

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

This Friday we’ll see where the US CPI comes out. We recently got the November print for the Eurozone CPI, and it came in hot, hitting 4.9% year over year. This makes it all the more interesting to see the latest ZEW Inflation expectations for…

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Spotlight Tokyo Electron: Shifting Left December 01, 2021

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Knowledge Leaders

Since its founding in 1963, Tokyo Electron has been accumulating the technological expertise it builds on to deliver industry-leading production equipment in two product categories: semiconductors and flat panel displays. In a recent statement, the firm’s CEO observed that 2020 was a year marked not…

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Spotlight Shimano: Spinning the Future November 29, 2021

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Knowledge Leaders

Bicycle components leader Shimano was founded in 1921, when 26-year-old Shozaburo Shimano borrowed a single lathe and set up a small ironworks shop in Osaka, Japan. Deciding they were the most complex component to produce, Shimano began by making bicycle freewheels, those round spiked wheels…

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Have Option Players Taken the Week Off? November 23, 2021

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

For years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, call option volume averaged about 15% of daily NYSE volume. This was a normal level of speculation that investors were used to. Then, as the chart above illustrates, in 2020 call buying just exploded. As of this writing the…

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Spotlight ALS: Getting Under the Surface of Global Testing November 23, 2021

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Knowledge Leaders

Recognized globally as one of the largest analytical test, measurement and inspection service providers, Australia’s ALS conducts environmental monitoring, food and pharmaceutical quality assurance, mining, minerals and commodities certification, and equipment maintenance. For example, ALS’s labs perform the analysis that identifies Salmonella and Listeria outbreaks…

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Does the Fed Have a Brewing Velocity Problem? November 17, 2021

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

A basic tautology that economists consider when thinking about monetary policy is the velocity of money. MV=PQ translates into Money*Velocity=Price*Quantity. Of course, price*quantity is nominal GDP while “M” is the money supply (for example, M2) while “V” is velocity, or the number of times the…

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Special Report: Seasonal Tailwinds November 01, 2021

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

We find compelling evidence that seasonal factors exist, historically leading November and December to be the highest 2-month combined returns all year. In our allocation portfolios, we have increased our equity exposure significantly in an effort to capitalize on these year-end trends. Please find below…

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Japan’s Reopening Trade October 18, 2021

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

In this quarter’s strategy package, we share our analysis on Japan’s Reopening Trade. In the full slide presentation, we cover the following: -Japan seems to have crushed the COVID-19 virus (for now at least) with daily new cases under 400/day. Lockdowns are over and the…

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