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International Demand Explodes for Short-Term US Treasuries June 06, 2023

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, News

Two weeks ago, we noted that Congress would soon raise the debt ceiling, but that this could set up unexpected consequences for investors. Now that that the debt ceiling is raised until 2025, the US Treasury is free to fund the government’s liabilities since January….

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Best Part of Jobs Report June 05, 2023

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, News

Of course, over 300,000 people getting new jobs is good unto itself, particularly for those with newfound opportunity. But, for the last several years, as the “great resignation” took hold, there were not many new workers coming into the workforce, leading to falling unemployment. This…

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U.S. Core PCE Inflation is Still Not Coming Down June 02, 2023

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, News

In the United States, Core PCE Inflation is still 5.0% after a recent reversal in disinflation. This measure is followed by the Fed and excludes volatile food and energy inflation. It has remained elevated on an annualized quarterly basis, with a 1-year percent change of…

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Warming to Duration May 30, 2023

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Leading into the weekend, where the debt ceiling had not been settled, markets were exhibiting very interesting positioning. To start, US Treasuries across the maturity spectrum were hugely out of favor. Net speculator positioning in options and futures were as short as they have every…

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Investors Only Have Eyes for Cash May 22, 2023

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

If you are starting to have a case of déjà vu around the current debt ceiling negotiations, you are not alone. In 2011, markets were relatively flat during the year before Congress and the White House (temporarily) buried the hatchet with the passage of the…

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There is Something Rotten in China May 22, 2023

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

One metric I look at fairly often for various countries is the relationship between the performance of stocks vs. bonds. The idea is straightforward enough: when stocks are outperforming bonds, it tends to be associated with a growing economy. When bonds are outperforming stocks, it…

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Mid-Quarter Update: Tightening Credit May 17, 2023

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, News

Credit conditions are tightening in both Europe and the United States. Our analysis follows in our mid-quarter update, Tightening Credit. ​​​​Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here.   1. Summary -Credit conditions in both Europe and the United States tightened significantly recently….

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China’s Soft Reopening May 11, 2023

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

China reported year-over-year inflation last night at just 0.1%, 0.2% lower than expectations. Clearly China’s reopening is not creating price pressures, which brings the strength of the reopening into some question. Recently, we saw a fairly significant drop in China’s PMIs—all of them well below…

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European Earnings by Sector: Winners and Losers May 05, 2023

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets, News

While earnings season in the US is winding down, European companies generally take a bit longer to report, which puts us squarely in the middle of Europe’s earnings season. Today, we will examine trends in fully reported developed Europe large-cap companies by sector. Our basket…

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