While the CBOE SKEW Index has fallen back somewhat from highs last fall (see our comment here), it remains quite elevated– both relative to history and on an absolute basis. Indeed, the further the index rises above 100, the higher the probability of ’outlier returns’. For a full description of the indicator’s profile, see here.
Read MoreWe noted yesterday that the US stock market took off after the Fed statement released (and the 2-10 year part of the yield curve came in significantly). So after the dust settles, which sectors led and which sectors lagged after the Fed statement?
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In the few minutes since the release of the FOMC statement and since the Fed dropped the word ”patient” as expected, the S&P 500 has risen by 30 points. Here are a few takeaways from the latest Fed projections and interest rate dot plot. Real GDP expectations have again been lowered.
Read MoreIf past relationships between the survey conducted by Credit Suisse and ZEW to determine economic expectations in Switzerland hold, the outlook is not very bright. From retail sales to unemployment to GDP, history would suggest a rough patch ahead.
Read MoreWhether this is pre-FOMC jitters or something else we will soon find out, but the action in copper recently and especially so far this morning is not sending such a reflationary signal.
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Since euro QE began in earnest at the beginning of March it seems we’ve heard nothing but the positive merits of investing in Europe now that the central bank has finally stepped up to the plate and delivered long overdue unconventional monetary stimulus.
Read MoreIndia has for years battled high levels of inflation which has in many ways kept the country from realizing its full economic potential. Over the last year though, basically since the price of oil stopped going up, Indian inflation has remained tame.
Read MoreThere is a new innovation boom playing out in the United States that has many positive implications for US equities. In July 2013, the BEA began including investment in intellectual property in National Income and Product Accounts. As part of this benchmark revision, the BEA revised the US national accounts going back to 1947 to
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February housing starts were released this morning and they were pretty terrible. Expectations were for starts to come in around 1.048 million. Instead, housing starts came in at a paltry 897K. Housing starts are now at the level as they were in January 2013.
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The outperformance of the world’s most knowledge intensive companies has continued over the last few weeks and in developed markets the outperformance gap relative to all developed market equities has widened.
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