Economy

NYSE Margin Debt Charged To New All-Time Highs In March April 30, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

After spending the past year somewhat ranged bound, margin debt increased by just under $11.5 billion in March to a new all-time high of $476 billion, taking out the previous high set in February 2014. The increase in margin debt over the past two months is the largest two-month increase since February 2013.

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The Step Down In Long-Term US Growth Rates Breaks Lower April 29, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

From 1974 to 2007, the long-term US growth rate in real GDP generally fell between 3-3.5% on annualized basis (excluding the v-shaped bounce from 1982-1984).  We define long-term here by looking at the 10-year annualized percentage change. With the 1Q now in the books, this series just dropped to an all-time low of 1.46%.

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The Plunge in Policy Uncertainty April 23, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The consistent decline in Economic Policy Uncertainty*, as measured by the indexes presented here, would seem to serve as evidence supporting a continuation of the positive trend in European equities.

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Where Positive Economic Surprises Are (And Aren’t) Happening April 10, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

There is a geographic disparity amongst the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Economies, both developed and emerging, are surprising to the upside in Asia and Europe while economies in the western hemisphere are not doing as well (at least in terms of meeting and exceeding expectations). Below we show some of the more interesting charts.

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$20 Billion Jump In Margin Debt In February March 30, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

NYSE margin debt increased by $20 billion in February. The one-month change is the largest change in 8 months. Margin debt is at the second highest level of all time and it currently stands just $787 million below the all-time high set in February 2014. 

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Assets At US Fed Are (Finally) Declining March 23, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Throughout QE3, one of our favorite charts to look at was the three-month change in total fed assets. You could overlay this series with bonds or stocks or other economic indicators and find some interesting relationship.

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Why Not Just Buy The US 5-Year Treasury? March 19, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The collapse in yields around the developed world is startling. For fun, we wanted to see how many 5-year or longer dated government bonds are currently yielding less than the US 5-year on-the-run treasury bond (which is down 23 bps YTD itself).

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