Economy

The Strong USD Is Negatively Impacting US Trade March 06, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Exports have been a solid contributor to US GDP growth for the last few years, while consumption and residential investment have been more restrained.  Recently, with consumption firming and likely to improve further from the tail-wind of lower oil prices, and exports faltering, it appears the drivers of the US economy are trading places.

Read More

USD and Purchasing Power Parity March 06, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

We mentioned yesterday that the US dollar is again breaking out and that tends to be negative for most stocks around the world. Today, we thought we would continue to look at US dollar strength. The nominal trade-weighted dollar index by major currencies is again very close to breaking out to 11+ year highs.

Read More

The Pop In US Mortgage Apps Was Fun While It Lasted February 25, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

After starting the year off with a bang (thanks to refinancing activity), US mortgage applications are tumbling back towards the depressed 2014 levels. Mortgage apps fell for the third straight week even as the purchase index rose for the first time in seven weeks.

Read More

Fed PMIs Were Almost Universally Weaker In January February 17, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

We had our first look at manufacturing conditions in February (NY Fed Empire Survey came in below consensus by a few points) and tomorrow we have the industrial production report for the US. What should we expect when that report comes out?

Read More

A Few Signs Are Pointing To A Lower US Savings Rate In 2015 February 06, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Since the depths of the financial crisis, the rebound in consumer credit has been polarized. On the one hand you have non-revolving consumer credit (i.e. car loans, student loans, etc.), which briefly declined on a year-over-year basis in 2009 and early 2010 before violently rebounding in 2011.

Read More

Inflation Expectations Have Increased Since Mid-January February 06, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Since January 15th, 5-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 23 basis points from 105 basis points to 138 basis points. 10-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 16 basis points during this time and 30-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 8 basis points since the beginning of February.

Read More

Real Trade-Weighted Dollar At A 141-Month High February 04, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The real trade-weighted exchange rate index against major currencies has reached its highest level at the end of January since April 2003. The broader index is currently at a 69-month high. The major currency index includes six currencies (Euro, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Pound Sterling, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc).

Read More