Economy

The Market Is Pricing In Two Rate Hikes In 2015 (And Four In 2016) March 11, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

According to Fed Fund futures, the market currently expects about 2 rate hikes by December 2015 (assuming the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points each time). Fed Funds futures is pricing the Fed Funds Rate at 54 basis points by December 2015.

The Strong USD Is Negatively Impacting US Trade March 06, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Exports have been a solid contributor to US GDP growth for the last few years, while consumption and residential investment have been more restrained. Recently, with consumption firming and likely to improve further from the tail-wind of lower oil prices, and exports faltering, it appears the drivers of the US economy are trading places.

USD and Purchasing Power Parity March 06, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

We mentioned yesterday that the US dollar is again breaking out and that tends to be negative for most stocks around the world. Today, we thought we would continue to look at US dollar strength. The nominal trade-weighted dollar index by major currencies is again very close to breaking out to 11+ year highs.

On the Long Bond and Why the Widow Maker is Alive and Well February 27, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Perhaps one of the most important questions investors need to answer today is whether we’ve seen the low in the long bonds yields or whether the trend lower is firmly intact.

US CPI Makes The Rare Plunge Into Negative Territory February 26, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

While we recognize that the negative year-over-year change in the US CPI may soon reverse given gas prices have risen by nearly 30 cents, we wanted to highlight how rare a negative year-over-year print is in the US.

The Pop In US Mortgage Apps Was Fun While It Lasted February 25, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

After starting the year off with a bang (thanks to refinancing activity), US mortgage applications are tumbling back towards the depressed 2014 levels. Mortgage apps fell for the third straight week even as the purchase index rose for the first time in seven weeks.

Most Companies In Most Countries Are Underperforming February 24, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

For every country in the MSCI World Index, we measure the percent of stocks that are outperforming the index. The results give us some indication of the breadth in the equity markets.

Spread Between US and German 10-Years Bonds At Widest Level Since 1989 February 20, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

On Tuesday, the spread between the US 10-year bond and the German 10-year bond reach 180 basis points (currently at 176 basis points). This was the widest spread since May 11, 1989.

Top Line Growth is Becoming More Bifurcated Across Economic Sectors February 20, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The growth leaders and laggards are becoming more apparent by the day – or at least analysts think so. In the below charts we show the median and average top line expected next twelve months growth estimates for certain economic sectors.

Fed PMIs Were Almost Universally Weaker In January February 17, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

We had our first look at manufacturing conditions in February (NY Fed Empire Survey came in below consensus by a few points) and tomorrow we have the industrial production report for the US. What should we expect when that report comes out?

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Economy

The Market Is Pricing In Two Rate Hikes In 2015 (And Four In 2016) March 11, 2015

The Strong USD Is Negatively Impacting US Trade March 06, 2015

USD and Purchasing Power Parity March 06, 2015

On the Long Bond and Why the Widow Maker is Alive and Well February 27, 2015

US CPI Makes The Rare Plunge Into Negative Territory February 26, 2015

The Pop In US Mortgage Apps Was Fun While It Lasted February 25, 2015

Most Companies In Most Countries Are Underperforming February 24, 2015

Spread Between US and German 10-Years Bonds At Widest Level Since 1989 February 20, 2015

Top Line Growth is Becoming More Bifurcated Across Economic Sectors February 20, 2015

Fed PMIs Were Almost Universally Weaker In January February 17, 2015

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