Markets

Coming Challenges to US Treasury Investing May 01, 2017

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

In the table below we show the aggregate US Treasury maturity schedule. Due to stops and starts of the US Treasury issuing longer dated bonds over the last few decades, there is a huge gap in maturities available for investors. The reader will notice that there…

It’s a Gusher So Far April 28, 2017

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

So far in this earnings season, with over half of companies having reported, the energy sector has experienced the biggest earnings surprise. Earnings have come in almost 23% ahead of analyst estimates, nearly double the surprise of the consumer discretionary sector. Digging into industry groups,…

Quarterly Update: Knowledge Leaders Strategy April 20, 2017

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Knowledge Leaders, Markets

In this quarter’s Knowledge Leaders Strategy update, we discuss our work in four areas. 1. The state of global innovation: After 52 years, Moore’s Law is alive and well with the number of transistors per chip still doubling every two years. Since semiconductors are the general…

Characteristics of Capital Preservation: A Look at the US Energy Sector March 21, 2017

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Knowledge Leaders, Markets

In a market experiencing the largest pullback since the election, investors are rightly looking for places to hide. At present, according to our work, the US energy sector is the only truly oversold sector. In our technical work, when a group reaches less than 20%…

A Massive Liquidity Illusion March 06, 2017

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Since the election we’ve heard the rally in stocks characterized as a “Trump Trade” or a “reflation” trade. We think there is a really important element missing from this analysis that could change very quickly over the next several weeks. On March 16, 2017 (the…

Quarterly Update: Knowledge Leaders Strategy January 19, 2017

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Knowledge Leaders, Markets, Portfolio Management

In our new quarterly update report, Portfolio Manager Steven Vannelli, CFA, discusses the investment team’s recent analysis on two topics, including: 1. New portfolio opportunities. Huge innovation in the energy sector – and the US Shale Revolution specifically — has manifested into new portfolio opportunities. The US…

Post-election Market Update & Conference Call November 18, 2016

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets, News

Today Chief Investment Officer Steven Vannelli, CFA, hosted a conference call to share the investment team’s analysis of the global equity and fixed income markets one week after the election. Click the link below to download the presentation. DOWNLOAD SLIDES A recording of the call will…

Quarterly Strategy Update: A Rotation to Cyclical Leadership? October 24, 2016

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

This quarter we discuss our work navigating a global equity rotation from defensive-driven leadership to cyclical-driven leadership. We analyze economic growth trends and our belief that we are in the closest thing to a synchronized global upturn that we’ve seen in years. We discuss three liquidity…

Quarterly Strategy Update April 27, 2016

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Knowledge Leaders, Markets

This quarter, we explore the hypothesis that the modern era of Ricardian growth has ended. We further explore what this means for asset allocation and which types of stocks in particular should do well in this Ricardian hangover. Download our First Quarter 2016 Strategy &…

Gavekal Capital Daily Financial Markets Interactive Chart Wrap February 24, 2016

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Knowledge Leaders, Markets

Global Equity Internals: We Haven’t Seen These Readings Since 2011 September 02, 2015

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Highlights The majority of our technical indicators are exhibiting readings not seen since the fall of 2011. Currently only 10% of developed market stocks and 9% of emerging markets stocks are above the 50-day moving average. Performance is still tilted in favor of developed companies…

Five Reasons Now is the Time to Hold Equities August 28, 2015

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Knowledge Leaders, Markets, News, Portfolio Management

After the recent correction, many investors are asking how to respond in their portfolios. I’m recommending clients hold on to equity exposure, even consider increasing it. Below, I run through my case. Reason 1: Valuations For the first time since 1956, the dividend yield on…

Growth Or Value Leadership Depends on Fed Policy June 19, 2015

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

The last few years have been good for growth stocks, but I think there is another observation underneath the surface as well. Growth and value leadership has pivoted on Fed policy the last five years. In the chart below, I plot the relative performance of…

June is Out… But 2015 Lift-off Still On June 08, 2015

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Looking at Fed Funds futures contracts, it would appear that the fixed income market has ruled out a June rate hike but is coming back to the idea of a 2015 lift-off. Currently June fed funds future are spot on the current effective fed funds…

European And Asian Stocks Are Approaching Overbought Levels May 22, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Unlike the majority of this six year old bull market, European and Asian stocks are outperforming North American stocks in 2015 (yes even measured in USD). Asian stocks are nearly 12% higher, European stocks are nearly 10% higher and North America stocks are just about…

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