Investors in innovation tend to focus on the US exclusively, and some of that is for good reason as the US spends more than any other country on research and development. But there are many innovative companies outside the US that spend substantial sums on…
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In recent reports, we’ve been highlighting that innovation—as a factor represented by R&D as % of sales—has stopped underperforming and it is selling for an attractive valuation. We used the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and other off-the-shelf indexes. Today we will highlight one of our…
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While many perceive the S&P 500 Index to be a broad innovation-heavy index, in a way it is and in a way it isn’t. It is an innovation-heavy index in so far as aggregate R&D investments total $478.8 billion, but it isn’t so innovation-heavy in…
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A couple weeks ago, in our quarterly strategy report (see: QSR-Has Innovation Bottomed?), I argued that it appeared that innovation had bottomed. I showed the following chart, which is maintaining its September 21, 2022 low, highlighting the quintile spread of the S&P 500 on the…
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It appears to us that global innovation has bottomed and offers attractive value. An extended analysis follows in our Quarterly Strategy Report: Has Innovation Bottomed? Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here. 1. Summary -Innovation as a factor appears have bottomed earlier in…
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Innovation was the market darling thematic for many years leading up to COVID. The pandemic turbo-charged returns for innovation as the stay-at-home beneficiaries did phenomenally well. However, since the first quarter of 2021 innovation has struggled as a thematic strategy. It appears to us that…
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Using our proprietary point-and-figure-based charting system, I review a couple thousand charts per week in an attempt to identify interesting buy or sale candidates. I am never satisfied with sector or industry-level narratives because underneath the surface, there is always more than one narrative going…
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Last week, the combined dollar value of hedge positions on the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Dow Jones Industrial indexes was $121.43 billion, not far from the August 16 peak of $160.02 billion. Last week, large traders (50 or more contracts) bought nearly 5 million…
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The most significant element going into the June low was positioning. Investors were hyper-aggressive buying hedges for equity exposure. Nothing has changed, especially after last Friday’s drop, and investors are still looking quite defensive. This is a positive in so far as it is indicative…
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Given all the confusion in the world around COVID, supply chains, inflation dynamics and war, there are lots of potential externalities that could resolve themselves unexpectedly. We call this the Deus ex Machina scenario. Our analysis follows in our Mid-Quarter Update. Prefer to download this presentation…
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Across US indexes, growth has experienced a resurgence relative to value off the June 17, 2022 low. In this piece, I am going to focus on small-cap stocks and consider their merits through the lens of: 1) US Treasury yields, 2) oil prices, and 3)…
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Since the COVID low in US Treasury rates and subsequent rise, the Japanese Yen has tracked the yield differential between the US and Japan. With the Federal Reserve having embarked on a rate hiking cycle, the monetary policy divergence between the US and Japan has…
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After the June 17, 2022 low, stocks have jumped higher, taking out the 50-day moving average yesterday in the S&P 500. Many are debating whether this is a bear market rally or the reversal of the bruising 6-month decline. For the time being, we think…
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The Smart Money Index was constructed by Don Hays and measures the market action in the first half hour of trading and the last hour of trading. The indicator shorts the first half hour of trading as it is supposed to represent the trading by…
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We think we could see a bullish back half of the year for equity markets. Our analysis follows in our Quarterly Strategy Report. Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here. 1. Summary -In the first half of 2022, markets experienced the largest…
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