Markets

Prognosis for Fourth Quarter Growth December 06, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

One of the more well-recognized Now-Casting data series is the GDPNow series produced by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta. Every day they incorporate economic data releases and update their estimate for GDP growth in the current quarter. GDPNow is a great source of information on…

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Was Today’s Rally the All Clear Signal or More Noise? November 28, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

The equity markets no doubt experienced a powerful move today on the back of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks mid-day. Specifically, his comments laid the groundwork for a pause in interest rate hikes in the first quarter of 2018. It was a welcome development for…

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There is a Huge Disconnect Between Energy Credit and Equity November 13, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Oil prices have swung drastically over the last couple months. The market was unprepared for the US to grant waivers amounting to nearly one million barrels/day to fill the void expected to be left by the drop in Iranian exports. Instead of Iranian exports plunging…

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Good For a Bounce in Stocks, But How Much More? October 31, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

The selling over recent weeks has been fast and intense, providing investors almost no relief. This type of short-term selling pressure has reached fever pitch levels that is usually indicative of some sort of relief rally, even if the ultimate lows are still ahead of…

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Trade War is Boosting US Economic Activity … in the Short-Term October 10, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Overnight, new data released in China suggests businesses are having a tough time lately. Cheung Kong University produces an alternate PMI Business Conditions Index in association with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. The latest data point plunged more than 10 points from its…

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Are We in for a Bond-pocalypse or Something Much Milder? October 10, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

Is last week’s 18 basis point selloff in 10 year government bonds the start of a bond bear market or a market adjusting to the realities of the time, albeit in a somewhat disorderly way? The answer to this question has obvious implications for not…

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Three Hints on the Direction of Chinese Assets October 04, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

The Chinese stock market is closed this week for the Golden Week holiday. On this side of the Pacific the markets have been busy this week with US Treasury bond yields breaking out and stocks selling off—especially technology—based on the revelation that China implanted devices…

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Small Caps Fail to Break Out September 27, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

  Among the major groups of stocks around the world that we follow, US small-cap stocks have been the best performer over the last decade as the USD experienced a strong bull market. US small caps have outperformed our mid/large group of developed companies by…

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Playing for a Bounce September 20, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Over the summer, some groups within the global equity market sold off sharply, leading to the current trends of poor performance and weak breadth. Foreign stocks, cyclicals and value-oriented sectors were the hardest hit. From here, we expect better trends from these groups as they…

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Wages Are Rising and The Phillips Curve is Not Dead September 07, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

The Phillips Curve (the relationship between wages and the unemployment rate) finally awoke from its slumber with today’s unemployment report showing private sector wages rising 2.9% year-over-year and non-supervisory wages rising 2.8% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate since 2009. Even more important than that, though,…

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Thoughts on the Term Premium September 07, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

As many have documented, the main channel of transmission for the Fed’s quantitative easing policy was via the term premium component of US treasuries. As the Fed’s balance sheet doubled from 2010 to 2015, the term premium embedded in US treasuries fell from 2.5% to…

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