Markets

Prognosis for Fourth Quarter Growth December 06, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

One of the more well-recognized Now-Casting data series is the GDPNow series produced by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta. Every day they incorporate economic data releases and update their estimate for GDP growth in the current quarter. GDPNow is a great source of information on…

Read More

Was Today’s Rally the All Clear Signal or More Noise? November 28, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

The equity markets no doubt experienced a powerful move today on the back of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks mid-day. Specifically, his comments laid the groundwork for a pause in interest rate hikes in the first quarter of 2018. It was a welcome development for…

Read More

There is a Huge Disconnect Between Energy Credit and Equity November 13, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Oil prices have swung drastically over the last couple months. The market was unprepared for the US to grant waivers amounting to nearly one million barrels/day to fill the void expected to be left by the drop in Iranian exports. Instead of Iranian exports plunging…

Read More

Good For a Bounce in Stocks, But How Much More? October 31, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

The selling over recent weeks has been fast and intense, providing investors almost no relief. This type of short-term selling pressure has reached fever pitch levels that is usually indicative of some sort of relief rally, even if the ultimate lows are still ahead of…

Read More

Trade War is Boosting US Economic Activity … in the Short-Term October 10, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Overnight, new data released in China suggests businesses are having a tough time lately. Cheung Kong University produces an alternate PMI Business Conditions Index in association with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. The latest data point plunged more than 10 points from its…

Read More

Are We in for a Bond-pocalypse or Something Much Milder? October 10, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

Is last week’s 18 basis point selloff in 10 year government bonds the start of a bond bear market or a market adjusting to the realities of the time, albeit in a somewhat disorderly way? The answer to this question has obvious implications for not…

Read More

Three Hints on the Direction of Chinese Assets October 04, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

The Chinese stock market is closed this week for the Golden Week holiday. On this side of the Pacific the markets have been busy this week with US Treasury bond yields breaking out and stocks selling off—especially technology—based on the revelation that China implanted devices…

Read More