Markets

Mid-Quarter Update & Slides: Escalation June 04, 2019

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

In this mid-quarter update, entitled “Escalation,” we discuss the backdrop of escalating trade wars and our belief that the environment is more favorable for US Treasury bonds relative to stocks. The trade war is escalating at a time of weakening global growth, thereby weighing further…

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Are We on the Same Page Yet? Tailwind for US Treasuries April 10, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

The IMF made news yesterday by announcing its latest updates to 2019 GDP growth around the world. It guided global growth down and made an especially large cut to Eurozone growth estimates, bringing them down 30bps since January to 1.3%. They also took their estimates…

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The Credit Markets Have Stalled February 15, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Credit markets often move before the equity markets, and this can offer helpful information about the near-term path of equity prices. In general, I like to see credit confirming what the equity markets seem to be saying. When credit stalls, like it is now, I…

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Currency Markets & Knightian Uncertainty February 08, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Knightian uncertainty is named after University of Chicago economist Frank Knight (1885–1972), who distinguished risk and uncertainty in his work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit: “Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated…. The essential fact is that ‘risk’ means…

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A New Year, New Expectations in the US Treasury Market January 31, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

The slide in oil prices in October accounted for most of the move in 10-Year US Treasury bonds via the inflation risk component of the term premium. The two series are always highly correlated and this is a mechanism through which oil price changes are…

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Prognosis for Fourth Quarter Growth December 06, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

One of the more well-recognized Now-Casting data series is the GDPNow series produced by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta. Every day they incorporate economic data releases and update their estimate for GDP growth in the current quarter. GDPNow is a great source of information on…

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There is a Huge Disconnect Between Energy Credit and Equity November 13, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Oil prices have swung drastically over the last couple months. The market was unprepared for the US to grant waivers amounting to nearly one million barrels/day to fill the void expected to be left by the drop in Iranian exports. Instead of Iranian exports plunging…

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