With France’s polls closing yesterday Emmanuel Macron will now serve a second consecutive term as the president of France, the first to do so since Jacques Chirac in 2002. Heading into the vote, Macron had an 80-90% chance of victory according to analysts, representing a...
The 1,000 or so participants in Sentix's monthly survey of whether or not a country will leave the euro collectively decided that the risk has subsided (slightly): The decline to 41% (from nearly 50% in April) was mostly attributable to risks related to Greece's membership in...
The recent (more than 10% QoQ) slide in the euro is a two-standard deviation event, the likes of which we have not seen since 2010. And, as we can see in the chart above, the only time the euro has declined more versus the USD...
The likelihood of a country leaving the euro zone rose once again, according to sentix’s Euro Break-Up Index (EBI)....
The EUR is trading at levels not seen in over a decade, in the wake of the ECB’s big QE announcement today....
In recent history, each time the EUR has fallen relative to the dollar, the implied volatility of the German DAX has risen– sometimes rather sharply....
IMF data released earlier this week revealed the largest ever quarterly decline in reserves held in euros....
Circling back to a topic we have addressed previously (here and here), today’s plunge in the EUR/USD exchange rate puts it back on track towards syncing up with the interest rate differential between corresponding spreads: Having narrowed the gap that developed late last year, how...
According to the most recent data available, the IMF estimates that central banks around the world shifted quite a few of their reserves out of the euro in Q2....
In June (here) and again last month (here), we noted a curious divergence in two series that have historically moved together– the EUR/USD exchange rate and the interest rate differential between the respective 2-year OISs....
Following the ECB’s June meeting, we noted (here) a curious disparity in the relationship between the EUR/USD exchange rate and the spread between interest rates in Europe versus the U.S. While the euro had failed to move lower then (as it has in the past),...
Given recent drama among Portuguese financial institutions, we are not especially surprised to see an uptick in the yield on credit default swaps (CDSs): What is a little more surprising is the move up–small though it may be (so far, anyway)–in CDS for Germany, aka the...
In the wake of today’s ECB announcement of rate cuts as well as additional measures to boost bank lending and head off disinflation/ deflation trends in many of its member countries, the euro has (unsurprisingly) moved lower versus the dollar: How far might it decline?...
Important survey data out of Europe today points to a growing disparity between the region’s two largest economies....
In an almost perfect ”taper on” sort of manner, stocks had their worst day since November 7th, the 10-year treasury bond sold off by 4bps, gold finished down $9.00, and the euro rose to the highest level since mid-October, and November 2011 before that....
