S&P 500 Tag

Putting this Rally Into Historical Context

14 Feb, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

Several weeks ago we did some research to find out what a typical rally looks like after a big waterfall-like decline takes place. The takeaway was that the rallies after those waterfall declines have lasted anywhere from 1 to 74 days and have retraced 20-90+%...

Did We Just See A Capitulation Low?

24 Aug, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

Today was undeniably ugly with the S&P 500 down nearly 4%, the Nikkei down 4.6%, MSCI Europe down 4.7% (although in USD terms the Nikkei was down just 1.7% and MSCI Europe was down just 2.9%). More stunning, however, is the fact that US stocks were...

Volatility is Stealthy Reemerging into the Equity Market

01 Jul, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

Earlier this week we highlighted that we'd seen the first 2% down day in the S&P 500 since the 4th quarter of 2014. In that post we showed just how depressed volatility has been by showing that no rolling six month period since 2012 saw...

S&P 500 Suffers First 2% Down Day Since End of 2014

29 Jun, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

Today was no doubt a risk off day for the markets. There was persistent selling pressure in stocks worldwide with the S&P 500 down 2.09%, but international indexes down quite a bit more. Given that today was the first 2% down day since October 9th, 2014 and...

Banking Underperformance Has Accelerated In 2015

20 Jan, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Banks, represented here using the KBW Bank Index, ended up underperforming the the S&P 500 by about 375 basis points in 2014. Since the beginning of 2015, bank performance has been much worse....

Junk Bond Spreads Widest Since August 2012

17 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

About a month ago, we noted that the spread between high yield bonds and treasuries was not confirming the all-time high in the S&P 500. Since that time, we have had a slight turnover in the equity market but an even larger move in junk...

Junk Bonds Not Confirming S&P 500 Record Highs

20 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Since the ”666” intraday low, high yield spreads and equity prices have basically moved in lockstep together. As equity prices moved higher, the spread between junk bonds and 10-year treasuries narrowed. As the chart below illustrates, this relationship started to diverge during the summer....

Boom-Bust Barometer Not Keeping Pace With S&P 500

15 Sep, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The Boom-Bust Barometer (CRB raw industrial index divided by jobless claims) made a high on July 16th. It has subsequently fallen to two month lows as the S&P 500 began to rally in mid-August. If the US dollar continues to rally, this may hold back...

Margin Debt Is Acting Curiously

26 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The unique behavior margin debt held in NYSE accounts this year continued in July. After looking like it had reached a structural peak in February, margin debt surged back in June. Now the latest data point for July shows NYSE Margin Debt dropped by about...

The Battle Of Risk Free Assets And What It Means For Stocks

22 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

When it comes to safe haven investments, the world generally invests in two assets: US Treasuries or German Bunds. Recently, bunds seem to be the preferred ”risk-free” investment of choice by a wide margin which has historically been a negative signal for stocks ....

Update on VIX Curve Inversion

06 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

A few weeks ago, we noted the relationship between an inverted VIX curve and declines in the S&P500 (see here).  Taking a longer-term view, we see that the last few years have been relatively quiet–characterized by few, intermittent inversions and minor pullbacks in the index....

Small Caps Stocks Took A Beating In July

01 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The S&P Small Cap 600 has now underperformed the S&P 500 by over 10% since March. July was particularly brutal as small caps underperformed by nearly 6% in that month alone. This relative underperformance has been somewhat predictable given what the Fed has been up...