In a year when the US is experiencing massive fiscal austerity, monetary tightening, war, inflation and a pandemic, there are many drags to stock performance. In our view, this puts the onus on sales and earnings to carry the S&P 500 higher. Fortunately, so far,...
We find compelling evidence that seasonal factors exist, historically leading November and December to be the highest 2-month combined returns all year. In our allocation portfolios, we have increased our equity exposure significantly in an effort to capitalize on these year-end trends. Please find below our...
Banks, represented here using the KBW Bank Index, ended up underperforming the the S&P 500 by about 375 basis points in 2014. Since the beginning of 2015, bank performance has been much worse....
About a month ago, we noted that the spread between high yield bonds and treasuries was not confirming the all-time high in the S&P 500. Since that time, we have had a slight turnover in the equity market but an even larger move in junk...
Since the ”666” intraday low, high yield spreads and equity prices have basically moved in lockstep together. As equity prices moved higher, the spread between junk bonds and 10-year treasuries narrowed. As the chart below illustrates, this relationship started to diverge during the summer....
Data released today revealed a jump in both bankruptcies and forced property sales in Denmark: Why do we care?...
The CBOE Skew Index made a 15-year, 11-month high last Friday and the 25-day moving average is on the rise again. The latest reading puts the risk-adjusted probability of a 2 standard deviation event happening in the next 30-days at 11.75%-13.10% and a 3 standard...
The Boom-Bust Barometer (CRB raw industrial index divided by jobless claims) made a high on July 16th. It has subsequently fallen to two month lows as the S&P 500 began to rally in mid-August. If the US dollar continues to rally, this may hold back...
The unique behavior margin debt held in NYSE accounts this year continued in July. After looking like it had reached a structural peak in February, margin debt surged back in June. Now the latest data point for July shows NYSE Margin Debt dropped by about...
When it comes to safe haven investments, the world generally invests in two assets: US Treasuries or German Bunds. Recently, bunds seem to be the preferred ”risk-free” investment of choice by a wide margin which has historically been a negative signal for stocks ....
A few weeks ago, we noted the relationship between an inverted VIX curve and declines in the S&P500 (see here). Taking a longer-term view, we see that the last few years have been relatively quiet–characterized by few, intermittent inversions and minor pullbacks in the index....
The S&P Small Cap 600 has now underperformed the S&P 500 by over 10% since March. July was particularly brutal as small caps underperformed by nearly 6% in that month alone. This relative underperformance has been somewhat predictable given what the Fed has been up...
Earlier this week as asked what junk bonds know that stocks don’t. Since then junk spreads to the 10-year US Treasury bond have widened another 20bps as they have accelerated higher. Given the 88% correlation with stocks over the last year, this is something that...
From a theoretical standpoint equity and high yield debt are not all that different. In both cases consideration of the return of one’s capital plays a large part in the investment process since both forms of capital are at the bottom of the capital structure....
Demand for increasing protection against stock losses increased yesterday, as the price of the VIX jumped relative to the price of its own futures. In the past, an inversion between the spot and 3-month prices has signaled a decline in the S&P 500....
