While yields at the long end of the US Treasury market have been heading lower all year (the 30-year has fallen from 3.93% to 3.32% and the 10-year has fallen from 2.94% to 2.56%) the middle of the yield curve has been acting entirely differently....
Last week we wrote that the bond market is following perfectly the reduction of QE with new 1-year lows and with today’s bond moves that trend is still firmly in place. In what may seem counter intuitive, treasury bond yields have had a high positive correlation...
Last weekend we wrote that The Flow of QE Suggests Lower Bond Yields and Stock Prices and it appears that is just what we are getting. Putting the stock part aside for now, we simply would like to point out that long-dated US government bonds are...
Stocks are once again departing from most other asset classes today as the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 rip higher while treasury yields and most hard commodities are down on the day, though higher than in early morning futures trading....
A few months ago in a post titled, ”How Bullish is a Bull Flattener?” we took a look at how bull flattening of the yield curve (when the long end falls faster than the shorter end) has tended to impact various assets....
The US 10-year bond has dropped by 8 bps today and has slammed through what was looking like support around the 2.50% level. If it closes at current levels than this will be the lowest close since 6/20/13. The 30-10 spread has widened by 7...
Despite (or because of?) the taper and some better economic numbers coming out of the US today, treasury bond yields are down for the 3rd day in a row. If the 30-year closes at 3.33% today (the current yield), the 3-day percent change in yield...
The long end of the yield curve has continued to flatten over the last several days. At 77 basis points, the spread between 30 year and 10 year treasury bonds is the narrowest it’s been since 2009 (1st chart below)....
Despite Fed minutes that left the door open to a December taper contingent on better economic stats, the markets are taking the relatively upbeat data over the last two days in stride....
We find it interesting that on a day when the French government gets its credit rating downgraded the spread between French OATs and US Treasury Bonds widens to the highest level since April 2010, with OATs now yielding 52bps less than USTs. This spread can...
10 year treasury yields finished 9bps lower on the day today hitting the lowest level since mid-July while gold, silver, copper and the euro all caught a decent bid. The divergence between S&P 500 futures and the 10 year note is now at the most...
Over the last four years, the derived inflation expectation of 30 year US Treasury bonds have moved in tandem with US Dollar. When the USD falls, inflation expectations rise, and when the USD rises, inflation expectations fall. Since mid-September, the US Dollar Index has fallen...
We’ve noted before how we group all 1607 companies in the MSCI World Index into deciles based on various fundamental and market factors, and then observe which factors were significant in explaining performance over various time periods....
