United States Tag

CFNAI Makes 94-Month High, Existing Home Sales Disappoint

22 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

As has seemingly been the case all year (or maybe even the past four years), we had a mixed bag of economic releases today in the United States. On the positive side, we had the Chicago Fed National Activity Index post the highest monthly number...

When 61 Basis Points Seems Like A Lot

10 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

As of the close yesterday, the US two-year treasury yield was sitting at 61 basis points. For a little perspective, the two-year started the year at 39 basis points and hit a low in September 2011 of 17 basis points....

Long End Of The US Yield Curve Flattest Since Jan 2009

09 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The spread between 30-year treasury yields and 10-year treasury yields fell to 65 basis points yesterday which is the lowest spread since January 21st, 2009. Since April 2013, the spread has narrowed by 59 basis points. As the long end has flattened, the spread between...

US Employment Report Chart Update

05 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Nonfarm payrolls came in well above expectations at 321K vs expectations of 230K for November. In addition, the previous two months were both upwardly revised by a total 44K jobs. Private nonfarm payrolls were up a very impressive 314K....

Spike In New Home Prices

26 Nov, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

US new home sales underwhelmed again in October. The latest data point came in at 458K SAAR versus consensus of 470K. What really caught are eye was the volatile increase in average and median prices. The average sales price spiked by nearly 28% month-over-month, easily...

Dallas And Denver Home Price Boom Continues

28 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Looking out of our office and seeing signs of construction activity across Denver, it can be hard to imagine that 20% of the cities in the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index are still at least 30% off its all-time high....

US Initial Unemployment Claims Make 14-Year Low

16 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to just 264K for the week of October 10th. This is the lowest level since April 14th, 2000. The non-seasonally adjusted series is now down 23% year-over-year. This is a positive sign that the US economy isn’t on the...

US Participation Rate Falls To 37-Year Lows

03 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

While the headline payroll numbers for September were positive, 248k vs 215k expected, and the August payroll number was revised much higher to 180K (from 142k), we are nonetheless very disappointed to see the participation drop to the lowest level since February 1977. The participation...

Q-Ratio At The Highest Level Since December 2000

29 Sep, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The Q-ratio, which is simply the equity market value of nonfarm, nonfinancial businesses divided by the net worth of those businesses, is at it’s highest level since December 2000.  Since 1945, the average level is 0.70. The current reading is over 1 standard deviation above...

US Same-Store Sales Growth Reach 9-Year High

16 Sep, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The ICSC-UBS/Goldman retail chain same-store sales is a useful weekly indicator of general merchandise spending which accounts for roughly 10% of the US retail market. Because it is a weekly data point, this series can look noisy....

Surveys vs. Hard-Data

15 Sep, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Industrial production in the US came in below expectations for the month of August (-0.1% vs consensus estimate of 0.3%) and Capacity Utilization fell to a six month low . Meanwhile, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey surged past expectations for the September (27.5 vs consensus...