United States Tag

The Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Market Is Still Dead

12 Sep, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The volume of asset-backed commercial paper issued in millions of dollars currently sits at 14-year lows (blue line). After reaching levels of $90 billion issued, the ABCP market now sits at below $9 billion. However, the entire commercial paper market has rebound a little bit...

US Mortgage Applications fall to 714-week low

10 Sep, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Last week we commented that US mortgage applications weren’t showing the bounce that other housing stats such as housing starts and existing home sales were showing year-to-date. Not only did mortgage applications not bounce back this week, but mortgage applications actually broke down to new lows...

US Mortgage Applications Still Can’t Get Off The Mat

03 Sep, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Each Wednesday morning we look forward to seeing if this will be the week that mortgage applications finally start to mirror the bounce we have seen in housing starts and existing home sales this year. Once again, however, housing starts remained weak....

Unmatched Month To Month Volatility In Chicago PMI

29 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The headline reading for the Chicago PMI blew away consensus expectations for August. Expectations were for the index to rise to 56.4 and the actual data point came in at 64.3. This is after the headline came well below in expectations in July. The series...

US Corporate Profits and Margins Bounced Back In The 2Q

28 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The preliminary estimate for corporate profits in the second quarter were released this morning and showed a rebound from the abysmal first quarter profits. Looking at after-tax profits with inventory and capital consumption adjustments, corporate profits 8.4% quarter-over-quarter AR which is the largest gain in three...

5 Charts Showing The Taper Effect

19 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

We noted yesterday how treasury bond yields keep falling along with the reduction of fed purchases. This inspired us to dig deeper into our chart library to see how other asset classes or economic statistics have performed in relation to our taper model....

US PMIs Highest Since 2005

05 Aug, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The ISM Non-Manufacturing index came in much higher than expected for July at 58.7 vs consensus of 56.5. Consequently, it helped boost our ”GDP weighted” PMI to it’s highest level since December 2005. The new orders index also reached it’s highest level since August 2005....

NYSE Margin Debt Back On The Rise In June

29 Jul, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

After it was looking like margin debt topped out in February, we have now had back to back months of increases in margin debt and June’s level is within sniffing distance of the all-time high (only about $1 billion below)....

What’s Wrong With The Housing Market In The South?

24 Jul, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Prior to the Great Recession the general belief in the housing market was that there actually wasn’t a national market per se but that the US housing market was an aggregation of many smaller regional and local markets....

German And French 10-2 Spread Flattest In The Last 5 Years

21 Jul, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The front-end of the yield curve has flattened in many bond markets this year. The German and French bond markets closed last week with their 10-year bond yield minus 2-year bond yield spread at it’s smallest level since January 2009. The German spread fell to...

Housing Starts Tumble In June

17 Jul, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Even though builders are increasingly becoming more optimistic according to the latest NAHB release yesterday, housing starts are showing major signs of weakness similar to what mortgage applications have been signaling. Housing starts came in well below expectations in June as they posted 893K annualize...

What Has Happened To Mortgage Applications?

09 Jul, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The first of half of 2014 saw the lowest average level of mortgage applications in the United States since the second half of 2000. This has occurred in tandem with a 44 basis point drop in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year....

Job Openings Have Spiked In The US

08 Jul, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

We have another positive release for the US labor markets today as the number of job openings has increased by about 500k jobs in the past two months. According to the JOLTS report released this morning, the current level of 4.635 million jobs is the...