United States Tag

Stocks And Bonds Both Gain On Latest FOMC Meeting

18 Jun, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The Federal Reserve kept to its taper program that has been in place throughout this year. Both bonds and stocks reacted positively to the news right on cue as the Fed announcement was released at 12pm MST. The latest Fed projections were largely in line...

Housing Starts Stuck At 1 Million

17 Jun, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

US housing starts for May came in below consensus at 1,001K units vs expectations of 1,036K units. Housing starts are still about 9.5% higher than they were a year ago. Regionally, housing starts are strongest in the Midwest while in the Northeast, starts are actually...

How Much Tighter Can Junk Spreads Get?

05 Jun, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The chase for yield has driven the the spread between junk bonds and AAA bonds to a 20-year low level of just 79 points. This has happened at the same time as the AAA-10-year spread has widened. The Junk-10-year spread remains historically tight....

Americans Just Don’t Drive Like They Used To

03 Jun, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

During our massive monthly data review on commodities, inflation, trade and leading indicators, one of the consistently eye-opening data points, even though we have seen the chart many times, is the leveling off of aggregate amount of miles driven on all roads and streets (annualized)...

Economic Uncertainty & Equities Markets

02 Jun, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Economic policy uncertainty continues to fall– along with the oft-quoted VIX– as this week’s much anticipated ECB meeting nears.  Will Europe’s monetary authority act decisively in an effort to combat increasingly common hints of disinflation/deflation?  Does that involve buying asset-backed securities?  Will today’s weak inflation...

Bond Yields Approaching 1-Year Lows

28 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The US 10-year bond has dropped by 8 bps today and has slammed through what was looking like support around the 2.50% level. If it closes at current levels than this will be the lowest close since 6/20/13. The 30-10 spread has widened by 7...

US New Home Sales Beats In April While Prices Fall

23 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

New home sales came in at 433K annualized in April vs Consensus of 420K. Adding to the good news is that March was revised up by 23K to 407K. Unfortunately, new home sales are still down a little over 4% year-over-year and still haven’t been...

Mixed Bag Of US Economic Data Out Today

22 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

It has been a very quiet week on the US economic report front but today we finally have a string of high profile releases. We will take them in order of release times… Jobless Claims snapped back a sharp 28K jobs to 326k during the...

NYSE Margin Debt Declines In March – Is the High In Place?

02 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Margin debt declined for the first time since May 2013 the latest data point shows. As we have shown before, NYSE margin debt has historically peaked about 1-5 months before the actual stock market high. There haven’t been too many head fakes in the past...

Taper Update

30 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

As most market participants are aware, the Federal Reserve has been following a very strict taper schedule which is modeled out in the chart below. What may be underappreciated is the fact that through April 25th, the Fed’s balance sheet has risen by nearly $273...

Can The US Realize 3.7% GDP Growth For The Next 3 Quarters?

30 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Today’s 1st quarter US GDP report came in much lower than consensus estimates were forecasting and were much lower than we were expecting even though we thought estimates were too high (see US GDP Likely To Disappoint).  1Q14 GDP was barely positive at 0.1% QoQ annualized...