United States Tag

NYSE Margin Debt Keeps Making New Highs

02 Jan, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

NYSE released margin debt for November last week and it posted another new all-time high. However, the one-quarter moving average of margin debt as a percentage of total capitalization is still below the level it was at in April....

PMI’s Indicate Decent Momentum Heading Into The New Year

02 Jan, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The ISM Manufacturing PMI and Markit Manufacturing PMI both indicate that manufacturing activity in the US continued to expand in December. Over the last few years, it has seemed that the US economy had picked up momentum in the 4th quarter, however, the economy then...

Is 2% Growth The New Normal For Consumption?

23 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

From 1960 to November 2007 (the 2007-2009 recession started December 2007 according to NBER), real personal consumption expenditures grew at just about 3.5% trend growth. In this recovery, consumption as only mustered a growth rate just above 2%. Is this another permanent downshift in consumption...

Intellectual Property Helps Boost 3Q Real GDP Over 4%

20 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The final revision for 3Q GDP surprised to the upside this morning as real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 4.1%. This is just the second time that real GDP has grown at a +4% clip in a quarter in the post-2008 recovery....

Housing Market Index Is Up, Should Help Buoy CPI

17 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The NAHB Housing Market Index increased to 58 to post the highest number since August, which is also the highest level of the recovery. The HMI correlates pretty well with house prices. And house prices, in turn, tend to lead CPI Owner’s Equivalent Rent....

US Econ Round-Up – IP Stronger, Surveys Hold

16 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Industrial production rose 1.1% in November, a much stronger gain than forecasters had expected (consensus was for 0.6% gain). The stronger gain in November to took the overall level of industrial production above 2007 highs for the first time. While Utilities helped to push industrial...

US Posts Strong November Auto Retail Sales

12 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

November’s retail sales posted a strong 0.7% month-over-month gain which was slightly above consensus expectations (0.6%). This is even more impressive when we consider that October’s 0.4% gain was revised up to 0.6%. Auto’s contributed to the strong retail number as they gained 1.8% month-over-month...

US Household’s Gain Wealth In The Third Quarter

10 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

According to the latest Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts (formerly Flow of Funds), rising equity and housing prices helped push the net worth of US households to another new high ($77 trillion). Total liabilities remain below 2007 highs....

US Spending Picks Up In November

06 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

We highlighted yesterday that spending on services was precariously close to signally a recession in the US (link). The good news is the first data point for the fourth quarter shows spending on services increased by 0.2% month-over-month and is 1.14% higher than it was...