The ISM Manufacturing PMI and Markit Manufacturing PMI both indicate that manufacturing activity in the US continued to expand in December. Over the last few years, it has seemed that the US economy had picked up momentum in the 4th quarter, however, the economy then...
From 1960 to November 2007 (the 2007-2009 recession started December 2007 according to NBER), real personal consumption expenditures grew at just about 3.5% trend growth. In this recovery, consumption as only mustered a growth rate just above 2%. Is this another permanent downshift in consumption...
The final revision for 3Q GDP surprised to the upside this morning as real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 4.1%. This is just the second time that real GDP has grown at a +4% clip in a quarter in the post-2008 recovery....
This has been a weak dominated by housing related data for the United States. We have seen a the NAHB HMI rise and housing costs boosting CPI and housing starts break a million but mortgage applications breaking down. Today we have existing home sales falling to an 11-month...
We had three month’s worth of housing starts data released this morning due to the government shutdown in October. The number of new units started broke the million level for the first time since 2008. Three of the four regions saw increases in November (the...
The NAHB Housing Market Index increased to 58 to post the highest number since August, which is also the highest level of the recovery. The HMI correlates pretty well with house prices. And house prices, in turn, tend to lead CPI Owner’s Equivalent Rent....
Industrial production rose 1.1% in November, a much stronger gain than forecasters had expected (consensus was for 0.6% gain). The stronger gain in November to took the overall level of industrial production above 2007 highs for the first time. While Utilities helped to push industrial...
November’s retail sales posted a strong 0.7% month-over-month gain which was slightly above consensus expectations (0.6%). This is even more impressive when we consider that October’s 0.4% gain was revised up to 0.6%. Auto’s contributed to the strong retail number as they gained 1.8% month-over-month...
A common theme off the bear market low of 3/9/2009 has been the relative outperformance of small-cap stocks vs large-cap stocks. This latest advance since October 1st has actually seen large cap stocks outperforming small cap stocks....
The Boom-Bust Baromter (CRB Raw Industiral Index/Initial unemployment Claims) has rallied since making a low on October 4th back to almost new highs. If the market keeps pushing higher will the Boom-Bust Barometer be able to keep pace?...
According to the latest Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts (formerly Flow of Funds), rising equity and housing prices helped push the net worth of US households to another new high ($77 trillion). Total liabilities remain below 2007 highs....
The purchasing power parity (PPP) theory basically states that the exchange rate between two countries should adjust so that a basket of goods in Country X costs the same as it does in Country Y when priced in the same currency....
We highlighted yesterday that spending on services was precariously close to signally a recession in the US (link). The good news is the first data point for the fourth quarter shows spending on services increased by 0.2% month-over-month and is 1.14% higher than it was...
Today’s employment and personal income and outlays reports may be strong enough for the Fed to begin tapering later this month. November employment came in at 203k jobs and the unemployment report dipped to a 5-year low (7%)....
US corporate profit margins are at their second highest level ever at 10.14%. The highest level was reached in the 4Q11 when profit margins spiked to 10.27%. 4-year annualized growth of profits have slowed from 19.4% to 10.1% in just three quarters....
