01 May, by in Markets
With April in the rearview mirror, it’s a good time to look back on which factors had the strongest relationship to market over the past month. USD correlation had the tightest relationship to the market....
USD Tag
Charting The Winners And Losers Of The Latest Surge In The USD
13 Mar, by in Markets
On March 4th we wrote in The Dollar Is Breaking Out Again And What It Means For Stocks that ”for a variety of cyclical and structural reasons…stocks in North America tend to be the relative beneficiary of USD strength while stocks in other regions generally, but not...
The Dollar Is Breaking Out Again And What That Means For Stocks
04 Mar, by in Markets
The ICE US dollar index looks to have broken out of what has been a rather short-lived consolidation after the massive move since the middle of 2014. If this is in fact the start of another round of dollar strength, then stock investors should carefully...
Exploring Dollar Strength and its Effect (or not) on EPS and Sales Growth Expectations
03 Feb, by in Markets
Last week we wrote a few posts here, here and here noting the significant deterioration in EPS and sales growth estimates over the last few months....
When 61 Basis Points Seems Like A Lot
10 Dec, by in Uncategorized
As of the close yesterday, the US two-year treasury yield was sitting at 61 basis points. For a little perspective, the two-year started the year at 39 basis points and hit a low in September 2011 of 17 basis points....
Have Estimate Revisions Bottomed?
21 Oct, by in Uncategorized
A few weeks ago we discussed how the USD was negatively impacting sales and EPS estimate revisions. The dollar’s rise since then has stalled somewhat which has us wondering if we have seen a bottom in sales and EPS revisions?...
Surprise, Surprise – The Most Significant Drivers of 1M Returns are the USD and Market Cap
07 Oct, by in Uncategorized
Each day we recalculate and rank the significance each of 30 factors has played to individual stock performance over various rolling periods. In this way we can get a better idea of the qualities of individual stocks the market is favoring and shunning, and this...
Copper Breaking Through Important Support as USD Continues to Surge
22 Sep, by in Uncategorized
Copper, after having been turned down by the falling trendline last week, is breaking down through the upward sloping support line today. The technical pattern formed in copper is known as an ascending triangle pattern, and breaking below the rising support line is generally taken...
Is Emerging Market Stock Volatility Set to Rise on Stronger USD?
18 Sep, by in Uncategorized
One of the ways we measure volatility in the stock market is to calculate the average realized volatility for constituents in various indexes. It’s no secrete that volatility has been muted pretty much everywhere, with the emerging markets being no exception....
EM Stocks Are Just Now Catching Wind of the Strong USD and Weak Commodities
12 Sep, by in Uncategorized
The simplest way we know of to measure whether an index is overbought or oversold is to calculate the percent of stocks in the index that are trading above their own 200-day moving average....
Which Countries are Likely to Outperform and Underperform in a Rising USD Environment?
12 Sep, by in Uncategorized
As we noted two days ago, a rising USD has some negative implications for commodity prices as well as emerging market stocks. Since commodities are priced in USD, a rising dollar will have a dampening effect on commodity prices generally....
Strong USD has Negative Implications for Commodities and EM Stocks
10 Sep, by in Uncategorized
Given that commodities are for the most part priced in USD, it follows that stronger USD weighs on commodity prices, and vice versa. As we can see from the first chart below, the long-term correlation of monthly price changes between the CRB Index and the...
5 Consequences Of A Stronger Dollar
05 Sep, by in Uncategorized
The real trade-weighted USD index (major countries) quietly made a 64-month high at the end of August....
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