Last week we put out a succinct mid-quarter update in which we highlighted 9 negative inputs into a tactical equity framework. This post builds upon that by calling out 7 rather conspicuous divergences that are developing in the financial markets. The VIX index is rising...
With the US dollar index recently having completed a so called “death cross”, we thought it would be a good opportunity to review the investment implications of a potential trend change in the USD. The “death cross” is a technical chart formation in which the...
Investors were finally treated yesterday to some of the most important compromise provisions to come out of the House-Senate conference on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Among them were: 21% corporate rate Reduction of the top wage rate to 37% 20% deduction on pass-through...
Over the last decade US stocks have outperformed the global equity benchmark by about 35% and have outperformed in eight of the last ten years prior to 2017. But that may all be coming to an end. Indeed, so far in 2017 the United States...
We've been arguing since the end of 2016 that markets could be in for a sustained period of USD weakness and so far in 2017 they delivered just that. Indeed, even with the USD having its worst start to the year since 1985, the following...
The USD is weak again today and plunging lows not seen for 15 months. The "obvious" reasons for the USD weakness include converging foreign economic activity, more hawkish foreign monetary policies, and a general overvaluation of USD. All of those reasons we outlined here. Yet,...
Since the beginning of 2017, the US dollar has struggled against nearly every major currency, calling into question the idea that the US dollar is still in a bull market. Indeed, since the dollar made its cyclical high on the first day of 2017 trading,...
WTI crude oil is at an interesting junction currently. As we write, the USD is on the precipice of a major breakout while WTI crude is just a few percent away from the its late-August lows. Meanwhile, the other most cyclically inclined commodities (copper, lumber) have...
With April in the rearview mirror, it’s a good time to look back on which factors had the strongest relationship to market over the past month. USD correlation had the tightest relationship to the market....
On March 4th we wrote in The Dollar Is Breaking Out Again And What It Means For Stocks that ”for a variety of cyclical and structural reasons…stocks in North America tend to be the relative beneficiary of USD strength while stocks in other regions generally, but not...
The ICE US dollar index looks to have broken out of what has been a rather short-lived consolidation after the massive move since the middle of 2014. If this is in fact the start of another round of dollar strength, then stock investors should carefully...
Last week we wrote a few posts here, here and here noting the significant deterioration in EPS and sales growth estimates over the last few months....
As of the close yesterday, the US two-year treasury yield was sitting at 61 basis points. For a little perspective, the two-year started the year at 39 basis points and hit a low in September 2011 of 17 basis points....
