China Tag

Chinese Stocks Break Years-long Critical Support Line

15 Jan, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Before showing some rather unpleasant looking charts it's important to keep in mind the following two items. First, the domestic Chinese stock market is still by an large closed to foreigners. Extremely large institutional investors can only purchase Chinese shares through convoluted means and then...

2016 China Outlook in Charts: More Slowing Ahead

11 Jan, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

2015 was a year in which many investors were caught off guard by the continued slowing of Chinese growth and the commensurate shocks to the global financial system it created as the renminbi weakened, Chinese foreign exchange reserves declined further, and commodity prices accelerated to...

China Keeping the Dream Alive with Government Spending

14 Dec, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Reported central government spending in China, which is likely only a fraction of the actual level of state directed spending in the economy, has recently shot up to a new all-time high just as the reported economic growth rate has plunged to a low not...

How to Invest in a Slowing China World

13 Nov, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Portfolio Management

Yesterday we gave three reasons why the stabilization seen in China over the last several weeks is just a cyclical pause before the next leg of the slowdown starts anew. Those reasons were that: 1) The current stabilization is almost entirely due to fiscal stimulus totaling...

Do You Believe that China is “Fixed” as Copper Plunges to New Lows?

12 Nov, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

The last two days have been met with the usual monthly slue of Chinese economic statistics including retail sales (+10.4% YoY), auto sales (+11.8% YoY), industrial production (+5.6 YoY), fixed asset (infrastructure) investment (+10.1% YoY), and bank loans (+15.6% YoY), among others (charts below). The fact that...

Q: Is the Chinese Rate Cut a Silver Bullet? A: No!

23 Oct, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Today the Peoples Bank of China cut the benchmark interest rate by .25% and lowered banks' reserve requirements by .5%. The measure is supposed to spur growth and make life a little easier on debt-ridden Chinese companies. In the immediate term it may give a...

Is China “Fixed”? Short Answer: Financial Markets Say No

25 Sep, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

The rally in stocks off of the August low has in some respects alleviated worst case fears about the fate of the Chinese economy. After all, in hindsight it is pretty clear that the selloff was driven by a simultaneous rerating of Chinese growth expectations...

Is the Chinese Yuan Undervalued or Overvalued?

16 Aug, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Almost all of the recent analysis surrounding China's recent currency fluctuation takes for granted that China just joined the global currency war by engaging in competitive devaluation in an effort to spur exports and thus growth. We offer a different take, that the recent move that...

More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 7/31/2015

31 Jul, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

In today's edition we highlight just a few data points: the South Korea Business Survey Index making a new low, Japan consumption expenditure having a very weak month, and Japan CPI headed back toward zero. The slowing of the biggest economy in Asia is really...