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Inflation Here, There and Everywhere February 19, 2021

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Uncategorized

What a week for price data! We have been writing about the possibility of higher inflation for months now, most recently here. We have also highlighted the most likely assets to benefit from higher inflation like copper, oil and energy stocks. So far so good…

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Productivity, an Additional Case for Homebuilders February 05, 2021

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Uncategorized

There are a few ways to measure productivity. One simple way to measure productivity at the company level is to calculate sales per employee. Higher sales for the same number of employees obviously means each employee is pulling more weight. Profits are a byproduct. The…

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What is the Best Hedge to Hot Inflation? January 15, 2021

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Uncategorized

This week investors learned of President-elect Joe Biden’s initial bid for the next round of COVID-19 relief. The number came in at $1.9tn. Importantly, included in this figure is mainly covid relief as opposed to a longer-term fiscal package that will be heavily weighted to…

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Stock Options Traders are Back at the Speculation October 16, 2020

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Uncategorized

In the last few weeks stock market sentiment as expressed in options has come full circle. Back in August we were noting a rather amazing level of outright speculation in stock options, mostly by small traders that were buying short-dated out of the money calls…

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Correction Update: Correction Continues September 18, 2020

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Uncategorized

We’ve been writing for the last month about the risks, and then the corrective activity in the stock market. Even as the market didn’t peak until the first few days of September, it “feels” like this pause has lasted longer than that. And yet, we…

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Happy New Year to Clients and Supporters! January 03, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Uncategorized

Dear Stakeholders, We’d like to take this opportunity to thank you all for your ongoing support and attention and to wish you the very best for 2018! In the next year, we’ll continue to focus our data driven analysis on what we feel are the…

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Europe Flash PMI Better, Not Fabulous December 16, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

While today’s better than expected rise in the flash PMI indicator (black line) for the euro zone is a welcome surprise, it would seem that it will take quite a bit more improvement before we can reasonably expect substantial progress in the recovery of important metrics such as GDP or industrial production: By country, France

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The Drop in the Oil Price Should Not be Viewed in a Vacuum December 12, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

It would be one thing if the recent fall in the price of oil was an isolated event completely explainable by supply side and/or geopolitical factors such as overproduction or the desire of the Western powers to punish Russia for its Ukrainian crusade. That, however, does not seem to be the case.

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When 61 Basis Points Seems Like A Lot December 10, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

As of the close yesterday, the US two-year treasury yield was sitting at 61 basis points. For a little perspective, the two-year started the year at 39 basis points and hit a low in September 2011 of 17 basis points.

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Long End Of The US Yield Curve Flattest Since Jan 2009 December 09, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The spread between 30-year treasury yields and 10-year treasury yields fell to 65 basis points yesterday which is the lowest spread since January 21st, 2009. Since April 2013, the spread has narrowed by 59 basis points. As the long end has flattened, the spread between high yield and AAA bonds has narrowed considerably.

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