Economy

Keep an Eye on the Yuan & Corporate Spreads May 28, 2020

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Since the March 23, 2020 low, when the Federal Reserve announced basically unlimited liquidity via a variety of programs, corporate spreads have narrowed, and the stock market has risen substantially. In the chart below, I overlay US investment grade spreads over the S&P 500 Index….

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Why the Fed Cut Rates by 50bps: Will it Help? March 03, 2020

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Despite the relief rally yesterday, financial conditions have tightened significantly in the last couple weeks. This likely explains why the Fed just made an emergency 50bps cut to the fed funds rate. The graph below highlights that the two main areas of weaker financial conditions…

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Ready for Action? February 24, 2020

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Former Fed Governor and now professor at the University of Rochester, Narayana Kocherlakota penned the following short opinion piece in Bloomberg this morning: Fed Shouldn’t Wait to Cut Interest Rates: Narayana Kocherlakota By Narayana Kocherlakota The world economy is facing a material risk in the…

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What’s Behind the Breakout in Gold? February 20, 2020

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

This week’s breakout in gold is an epic expression of our times in which potential economic problems are quickly followed by massive actual and expected responses by central banks and governments. The problem de jour (for both markets and the public) is of course the…

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A JOLT to Job Openings & Asset Expectations February 11, 2020

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

This morning the monthly job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) report was released, and it came in significantly shy of expectations. While Bloomberg’s consensus estimate was for 6.925 million job openings, the actual number came in at 6.423. It is important to keep in mind…

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A Recovery, But of the Square Root Variety February 06, 2020

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Regular readers of this blog and of our other commentary know that we have been been looking for some kind of cyclical rebound in economic activity starting in the first quarter of 2020. By many indications, we are getting just that, and right on time….

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Why Coronavirus is Scary for Financial Markets January 31, 2020

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

As we write, US stocks are down about 1.6% on the day, foreign developed market stocks are down 1.8%, and emerging market stocks are down about 2.4%. This type of corrective action did not really come as a surprise to us. Indeed just two weeks…

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Mid-Quarter Update: Spotlight on US Corporate Profits December 04, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

US corporate profits are down from the 2014 peak. In this mid-quarter special report, we dive deep into corporate profits, taxes, profit margins and the increasing government debt levels that have propelled stock and bond prices higher, in our view, leading to rising equity and government…

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