Economy

Get Ready for Services Prices to Accelerate Higher January 22, 2021

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

We’re going to keep this post short and sweet because the charts speak for themselves. Today, preliminary Markit PMIs were released for January. Headline numbers ticked up, which is great and shows a continued expansion into the new year. The release also showed that input…

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More Evidence of Stagflation in the PMIs December 16, 2020

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Markit’s preliminary December PMIs were released today and our takeaway is that they show the risk of some kind of stagflation is gaining a little steam. In both the manufacturing and services surveys, new business/new orders dropped while input prices rose. In the case of…

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Breakeven Inflation is Breaking Out December 04, 2020

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

Inflation expectations as priced by the Treasury market are hitting 18 month highs just now. As the reader can see, inflation expectations across all treasury maturities are at cycle highs. This is happening coincident with growing expectations for the $908bn bipartisan stimulus deal and widespread…

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Value over Growth or More of the Same? August 14, 2020

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

Over the last few weeks there has been quite a bit of chatter among strategists about whether the market is undergoing a sustainable rotation into “value” stocks from “growth” stocks. It’s a bit surprising to us to see the outpouring of commentary on the issue,…

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Ready for Another USD Rally? June 19, 2020

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

As funding strains appeared in March, the USD surged. Then the Fed stepped in with massive foreign exchange swaps as a way to lend USD to foreign central banks, intended to ultimately be lent to borrowers in need of USD. As F/X swaps reached almost…

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