Crash Watch May 12, 2022

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

The template of 1929 and 1987 is coming into focus in recent trading days. Let’s start with the 1929 crash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average began the week of October 5 with a slight gain, and then the rest of the week (October 6-9) were…

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The Chinese Devaluation Continues May 11, 2022

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Just today, as US inflation came in a touch hotter than expected, the Chinese Yuan is pulling lower, testing the lows of May 9, 2022. The five-day rate of change is fairly extreme by anything we’ve seen over the last few years. The last time…

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Thoughts on Fed Meeting and Rest of Year May 04, 2022

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Today the Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate (upper bound) to 1% from 50bps. The most surprising element of the press conference was the Chairman dismissing that the committee is not “actively” considering a 75bps hike right now. This sent algos into…

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Macron Won, So Why Didn’t the Euro? April 25, 2022

By Brian Clark in Markets, News

With France’s polls closing yesterday Emmanuel Macron will now serve a second consecutive term as the president of France, the first to do so since Jacques Chirac in 2002. Heading into the vote, Macron had an 80-90% chance of victory according to analysts, representing a…

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Navigating a Minefield April 12, 2022

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

In this quarter’s strategy report, Navigating a Minefield, we discuss the following: -The Fed is tightening into a growth slowdown. Unlike in 2015, the Fed has just lifted off while the ISM Manufacturing is contracting and real GDP estimates for 2022 are steadily falling. If…

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