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What’s Behind the Breakout in Gold? February 20, 2020

By Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

This week’s breakout in gold is an epic expression of our times in which potential economic problems are quickly followed by massive actual and expected responses by central banks and governments. The problem de jour (for both markets and the public) is of course the…

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A JOLT to Job Openings & Asset Expectations February 11, 2020

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

This morning the monthly job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) report was released, and it came in significantly shy of expectations. While Bloomberg’s consensus estimate was for 6.925 million job openings, the actual number came in at 6.423. It is important to keep in mind…

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A Recovery, But of the Square Root Variety February 06, 2020

By Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Regular readers of this blog and of our other commentary know that we have been been looking for some kind of cyclical rebound in economic activity starting in the first quarter of 2020. By many indications, we are getting just that, and right on time….

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Coronavirus – The Intangible Investor Podcast, Ep. 8 February 04, 2020

By Knowledge Leaders Team in Podcasts

How will the coronavirus and quarantine impact China’s economy? Steve looks at what’s happened so far in China’s currency and fixed income markets. Bryce shares new data that casts doubt on comparisons to SARS, indicating coronavirus could be a much bigger deal. On The Intangible…

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Why Coronavirus is Scary for Financial Markets January 31, 2020

By Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

As we write, US stocks are down about 1.6% on the day, foreign developed market stocks are down 1.8%, and emerging market stocks are down about 2.4%. This type of corrective action did not really come as a surprise to us. Indeed just two weeks…

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Short Anatomy of a Sell-Off January 31, 2020

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

Sell-offs can start for any number of endogenous or exogenous events. A mentor used to tell me, “There are a million reasons to sell a stock, but one reason to buy.” What he meant was that there are always personal reasons to sell: tuition is…

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What is Driving US Treasury Rates Lower in 2020? January 29, 2020

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

10-Year US Treasury yields are down about 30bps so far this year, continuing the trend of lower rates that began in the fall of 2018 and confounding investor expectations for rising rates which would validate a turn up in economic activity. The primary driver of…

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There are a number of factors that have us tactically concerned about a period of over-exuberance among equity investors. Those include record low put/call ratios and extreme inflows into equity ETFs. But among the more troubling facts of late is the breakdown in breadth we…

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