Bicycle components leader Shimano was founded in 1921, when 26-year-old Shozaburo Shimano borrowed a single lathe and set up a small ironworks shop in Osaka, Japan. Deciding they were the most complex component to produce, Shimano began by making bicycle freewheels, those round spiked wheels…
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For years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, call option volume averaged about 15% of daily NYSE volume. This was a normal level of speculation that investors were used to. Then, as the chart above illustrates, in 2020 call buying just exploded. As of this writing the…
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Recognized globally as one of the largest analytical test, measurement and inspection service providers, Australia’s ALS conducts environmental monitoring, food and pharmaceutical quality assurance, mining, minerals and commodities certification, and equipment maintenance. For example, ALS’s labs perform the analysis that identifies Salmonella and Listeria outbreaks…
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A definite feature of the last decade has been the persistent underperformance of European and Asian stocks vs US stocks. Foreign stocks have underperformed with such consistency that it’s almost expected at this point. Nonetheless, we may be at a tactical point where a mean…
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A basic tautology that economists consider when thinking about monetary policy is the velocity of money. MV=PQ translates into Money*Velocity=Price*Quantity. Of course, price*quantity is nominal GDP while “M” is the money supply (for example, M2) while “V” is velocity, or the number of times the…
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It’s no secret that pandemic-related government policy is driving at least some of the inflation currently being experienced in the United States. Indeed, real disposable income per capita has deviated from a linear trend in a meaningful way since 2020. The recent “breakout” in real…
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This week Jerome Powell tossed the market a bone by hinting that the Fed would be patient in raising short-term interest rates due to the continued slack in the US labor market and inflation that would likely be “transitory”. Yet, today, the unemployment rate dropped…
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We find compelling evidence that seasonal factors exist, historically leading November and December to be the highest 2-month combined returns all year. In our allocation portfolios, we have increased our equity exposure significantly in an effort to capitalize on these year-end trends. Please find below…
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By now investors are quite aware of the consequences of financial repression via negative real interest rate policies. Since interest rates on “risk free” government debt are too low to even compensate for inflation, it pushes investors out the risk spectrum in an effort to…
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In this quarter’s strategy package, we share our analysis on Japan’s Reopening Trade. In the full slide presentation, we cover the following: -Japan seems to have crushed the COVID-19 virus (for now at least) with daily new cases under 400/day. Lockdowns are over and the…
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