In the United States, Core PCE Inflation is still 5.0% after a recent reversal in disinflation. This measure is followed by the Fed and excludes volatile food and energy inflation. It has remained elevated on an annualized quarterly basis, with a 1-year percent change of…
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Leading into the weekend, where the debt ceiling had not been settled, markets were exhibiting very interesting positioning. To start, US Treasuries across the maturity spectrum were hugely out of favor. Net speculator positioning in options and futures were as short as they have every…
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If you are starting to have a case of déjà vu around the current debt ceiling negotiations, you are not alone. In 2011, markets were relatively flat during the year before Congress and the White House (temporarily) buried the hatchet with the passage of the…
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One metric I look at fairly often for various countries is the relationship between the performance of stocks vs. bonds. The idea is straightforward enough: when stocks are outperforming bonds, it tends to be associated with a growing economy. When bonds are outperforming stocks, it…
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Credit conditions are tightening in both Europe and the United States. Our analysis follows in our mid-quarter update, Tightening Credit. Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here. 1. Summary -Credit conditions in both Europe and the United States tightened significantly recently….
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It would appear that the decline in European natural gas prices has contributed to an increase in Eurozone GDP estimates for the year. Once prices crossed below $50, GDP estimates began to rise, and now the consensus expects .6% GDP growth from the Eurozone this…
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China reported year-over-year inflation last night at just 0.1%, 0.2% lower than expectations. Clearly China’s reopening is not creating price pressures, which brings the strength of the reopening into some question. Recently, we saw a fairly significant drop in China’s PMIs—all of them well below…
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While earnings season in the US is winding down, European companies generally take a bit longer to report, which puts us squarely in the middle of Europe’s earnings season. Today, we will examine trends in fully reported developed Europe large-cap companies by sector. Our basket…
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With approximately 80% of companies in the S&P 500 reporting, now is a good time to take a look at how developed market Americas (US and Canada) large cap stocks faired on a sector level. To construct our stock universe we take 70% of the…
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Developed Asia’s large cap stocks have had a generally positive earnings season so far. Earnings per share from companies that have already reported have averaged a surprise to the upside of almost 12% on an equal-weighted basis, with 28 of the 47 equities in our…
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