Blog

Regional Differences in European GDP Trends February 01, 2023

By Austin Mann in Economy

On Monday, Germany’s GDP print for the final quarter of 2022 came out below expectations of 0.0% by -0.2%. This negative (rather than stagnant) figure makes the -0.5% print forecast for Q1 2023 a more foreboding prediction for Germany’s economy. France’s expected GDP for Q4…

Read More

Is the Fed Winning the Inflation War? January 31, 2023

By Brian Clark in Economy

In anticipation of tomorrow’s rate decision, we saw another indicator today that the Federal Reserve has been successful in stemming the tide of inflation. The Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter of 2022 came in under expectations at 1% quarter-over-quarter, or about 4% annualized….

Read More

South Korea and Japan are the top two source nations for Chinese imports respectively, and generally they export the same kinds of manufactured goods. With the expected explosion in demand from China’s reopening, both countries stand poised for a trade windfall. However, we could see…

Read More

Things in Atlanta are Dropping Like a Stone January 25, 2023

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

The Atlanta Fed Flexible CPI is a price series developed by the Atlanta Fed to capture the price of items that change the most frequently. This price series is supposed to be more responsive to real-time changes in the economy than the CPI, so generally,…

Read More

US PMIs Show the Fed Walking a Fine Line January 25, 2023

By Brian Clark in Economy

The US Purchasing Managers Composite Index (PMI) increased in January to 46.6 from 45 in December, representing a slowing economy but slightly less pessimistic than expected and better than the month before. As a preliminary release for January, this US PMI report gives investors the…

Read More

Common and Unique Threads of European Inflation January 20, 2023

By Austin Mann in Economy

We got consumer price reports for many European countries this week. The main story for the Eurozone is still one of sticky inflation driven by elevated food and fuel prices, though there are some differences emerging among the major European economies. In this analysis we…

Read More

Are Home Buyers Back in the Game? January 20, 2023

By Brian Clark in Economy

With mortgage rates down, mortgage applications for purchase surged last week, indicating some renewed enthusiasm from potential home buyers. Additionally, the NAHB’s survey of home builders showed what could be a bottom in negative sentiment or at least a reprieve from a terrible 2022. Friday’s…

Read More

China’s Reopening Trade is On January 18, 2023

By Tom Nemechek in Economy

In an abrupt volte-face, on December 7, 2022, China announced an end to its “Zero-COVID” policy after the country endured almost three years of damaging lockdowns. This began a flurry of speculation on the impact that China’s reopening would have on the world economy. Central…

Read More

Obituary: Yield Curve Control January 13, 2023

By Tom Nemechek in Economy

Overnight, traders pressed the Bank of Japan again on its Yield Curve Control (YCC). Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) traded up to 55bps, exceeding the 50bps YCC. This prompted the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to intervene and hammer the rate back down to 50bps. At the…

Read More