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Obituary: Yield Curve Control January 13, 2023

By Tom Nemechek in Economy

Overnight, traders pressed the Bank of Japan again on its Yield Curve Control (YCC). Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) traded up to 55bps, exceeding the 50bps YCC. This prompted the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to intervene and hammer the rate back down to 50bps. At the…

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The December U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index came in exactly as expected according to Bloomberg’s survey of economists. Headline CPI came in at -0.1% month over month and 6.5% year over year, and Core (CPI Ex Food and Energy) came in at…

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Balmy European Winter Helps Industrial Production January 10, 2023

By Austin Mann in Economy

With winter not fully upon us, European industrial production has benefitted from lower energy prices. The mild weather has led economists to predict less dire economic scenarios, where recession fears have receded. November’s industrial production highlights the economic benefit realized from this winter’s mild weather….

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A Goldilocks Job Report January 09, 2023

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

As the market continues to rally on Monday, we can’t help but ask ourselves what data nugget might we have missed from last Friday’s data? Let’s start with the more difficult data: the employment report. On the surface, the report showed a gain of 223,000…

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In our Quarterly Strategy Report, we illustrate the relative attractiveness of select developed international sectors. Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here. 1. Summary -Monetary policy is considerably more restrictive than many perceive. The San Francisco Federal Reserve has calculated a “Proxy Rate” that…

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Inversion December 20, 2022

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

In a recent San Francisco Federal Reserve Publication titled “Monetary Policy Stance is Tighter Than Fed Funds Rate,” the authors argue that the “all in” policy rate is actually higher than the Fed Funds rate would suggest. They open: “The Federal Reserve’s use of forward…

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That Was a Strong Jobs Report? December 06, 2022

By Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

While many seemed to focus on the basics of the employment report like average hourly earnings (which don’t take into consideration industry mix shifts among the employed) and the payroll job beat for the month, there is one very important variable that revealed the weakness…

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