We think we could see a bullish back half of the year for equity markets. Our analysis follows in our Quarterly Strategy Report. Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here. 1. Summary -In the first half of 2022, markets experienced the largest…
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Crude oil and energy equities have been on a tear for the last two years. But now we are seeing some divergences between oil prices and other related variables. First, as everyone knows, oil prices have been the main driver of rising bond yields this…
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Please find below our Mid-Quarter Update: Tour of the Global Equity Markets. Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here. 1. Summary We have a very precise methodology for dissecting the world’s equity markets. We take: 1)The top 85% of the market cap of each…
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All year inflation has been the narrative driving markets. Since December 2021, once the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) took off, rates have risen in tandem. But, interestingly enough the BCOM has been flat since peaking on March 8, 2022. Every day we seem to be…
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The template of 1929 and 1987 is coming into focus in recent trading days. Let’s start with the 1929 crash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average began the week of October 5 with a slight gain, and then the rest of the week (October 6-9) were…
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Just today, as US inflation came in a touch hotter than expected, the Chinese Yuan is pulling lower, testing the lows of May 9, 2022. The five-day rate of change is fairly extreme by anything we’ve seen over the last few years. The last time…
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Today the Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate (upper bound) to 1% from 50bps. The most surprising element of the press conference was the Chairman dismissing that the committee is not “actively” considering a 75bps hike right now. This sent algos into…
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With France’s polls closing yesterday Emmanuel Macron will now serve a second consecutive term as the president of France, the first to do so since Jacques Chirac in 2002. Heading into the vote, Macron had an 80-90% chance of victory according to analysts, representing a…
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The clear and present danger to the global economy is inflation because global central banks are starting to take aggressive actions to deal with what they now believe to be non-transitory inflation. The Fed funds futures curve is signaling a tightening campaign not seen since…
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In this quarter’s strategy report, Navigating a Minefield, we discuss the following: -The Fed is tightening into a growth slowdown. Unlike in 2015, the Fed has just lifted off while the ISM Manufacturing is contracting and real GDP estimates for 2022 are steadily falling. If…
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In a year when the US is experiencing massive fiscal austerity, monetary tightening, war, inflation and a pandemic, there are many drags to stock performance. In our view, this puts the onus on sales and earnings to carry the S&P 500 higher. Fortunately, so far,…
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The Federal Reserve has all but cemented expectations for a 25bps rate hike next week. But, events have changed a lot in the last couple weeks that raise a faint hint that the Fed may not hike, despite elevated, persistent inflation. What makes us question…
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2022 has been a tough year so far for risk management. This appears to us related to the inflation problem the US is experiencing. As long as inflation persists, the ineffectiveness of duration will likely persist. We think inflation will persist and are thus broadening…
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After President Biden’s speech, the consensus seemed to coalesce around the idea that the sanctions put forth were not as strong as they possibly could have been. Chiefly, due to a disagreement with Europe, Russia was allowed to remain in the SWIFT payment system—the system…
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Of course, the backdrop right now is Russia—a large petroleum-producing country—threatening to invade Ukraine. This is clearly roiling the oil markets and leading to ever higher prices. Have those prices gotten ahead of the fundamentals and technicals? US West Texas Intermediate oil prices tend to…
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