Markets

Is Now the Time for Small Cap Growth to Shine? August 03, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Across US indexes, growth has experienced a resurgence relative to value off the June 17, 2022 low. In this piece, I am going to focus on small-cap stocks and consider their merits through the lens of: 1) US Treasury yields, 2) oil prices, and 3)…

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Is the Japanese Yen’s Decline Over? July 26, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Since the COVID low in US Treasury rates and subsequent rise, the Japanese Yen has tracked the yield differential between the US and Japan. With the Federal Reserve having embarked on a rate hiking cycle, the monetary policy divergence between the US and Japan has…

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Room to Run July 20, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

After the June 17, 2022 low, stocks have jumped higher, taking out the 50-day moving average yesterday in the S&P 500. Many are debating whether this is a bear market rally or the reversal of the bruising 6-month decline. For the time being, we think…

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Smart Money Investing Signals July 05, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

The Smart Money Index was constructed by Don Hays and measures the market action in the first half hour of trading and the last hour of trading. The indicator shorts the first half hour of trading as it is supposed to represent the trading by…

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Bullish Back Half July 01, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

We think we could see a bullish back half of the year for equity markets. Our analysis follows in our Quarterly Strategy Report. Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here. 1. Summary -In the first half of 2022, markets experienced the largest…

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Divergences in the Energy Patch June 07, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Crude oil and energy equities have been on a tear for the last two years. But now we are seeing some divergences between oil prices and other related variables. First, as everyone knows, oil prices have been the main driver of rising bond yields this…

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Tour of the Global Equity Markets June 03, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Please find below our Mid-Quarter Update: Tour of the Global Equity Markets. Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here.   1. Summary We have a very precise methodology for dissecting the world’s equity markets. ​​​​​We take: 1)The top 85% of the market cap of each…

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Inflation, Growth, China and Financial Markets May 19, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

All year inflation has been the narrative driving markets. Since December 2021, once the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) took off, rates have risen in tandem. But, interestingly enough the BCOM has been flat since peaking on March 8, 2022. Every day we seem to be…

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Crash Watch May 12, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

The template of 1929 and 1987 is coming into focus in recent trading days. Let’s start with the 1929 crash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average began the week of October 5 with a slight gain, and then the rest of the week (October 6-9) were…

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The Chinese Devaluation Continues May 11, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Just today, as US inflation came in a touch hotter than expected, the Chinese Yuan is pulling lower, testing the lows of May 9, 2022. The five-day rate of change is fairly extreme by anything we’ve seen over the last few years. The last time…

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Thoughts on Fed Meeting and Rest of Year May 04, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Today the Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate (upper bound) to 1% from 50bps. The most surprising element of the press conference was the Chairman dismissing that the committee is not “actively” considering a 75bps hike right now. This sent algos into…

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Macron Won, So Why Didn’t the Euro? April 25, 2022

Posted by Brian Clark in Markets, News

With France’s polls closing yesterday Emmanuel Macron will now serve a second consecutive term as the president of France, the first to do so since Jacques Chirac in 2002. Heading into the vote, Macron had an 80-90% chance of victory according to analysts, representing a…

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Navigating a Minefield April 12, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

In this quarter’s strategy report, Navigating a Minefield, we discuss the following: -The Fed is tightening into a growth slowdown. Unlike in 2015, the Fed has just lifted off while the ISM Manufacturing is contracting and real GDP estimates for 2022 are steadily falling. If…

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