The title of this post seems rather obvious in light of this week’s events, but it’s something we have been talking about for months now. Rising interest rates are not kind to tech stocks. Rising rate volatility is not kind for tech stocks. And, rising…
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To say the market is bubblelicious is a bit of an understatement given that retail “investment” in call options and penny stocks is quite literally off the charts, dwarfing numbers we saw in 1998-2000. We’ve hit on those worries like a broken record here and…
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In which we discuss the recent small trader mania. Download slides here: Small Trader Mania Questions? Email us at investmentteam@klcapital.com.
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In this Q4 2020 slide presentation of our quarterly strategy report, we discuss: Bob Farrell’s Rules for Trading (#5 and #7 especially resonate with us right now). What the retail trading frenzy, recent IPOs and speculation can tell us about where we are in the…
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We’re going to keep this post short and sweet because the charts speak for themselves. Today, preliminary Markit PMIs were released for January. Headline numbers ticked up, which is great and shows a continued expansion into the new year. The release also showed that input…
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Last week we commented that despite the very tame CPI reading, alternate measures of inflation were telling a different story. Chief among them are inflation expectations as priced by the Treasury bond market. Well, this week we again got another inflation data print that showed…
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This week we were privy to both new inflation and initial unemployment claims data. The CPI data revealed a rather mundane inflation scenario. Meanwhile, the weekly initial claims number came in at a whopping 853K and missed estimates by the largest amount since June. Yet,…
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Inflation expectations as priced by the Treasury market are hitting 18 month highs just now. As the reader can see, inflation expectations across all treasury maturities are at cycle highs. This is happening coincident with growing expectations for the $908bn bipartisan stimulus deal and widespread…
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There couldn’t be a greater cocktail of recent news, with three COVID vaccines showing strong promise and the political transition beginning to formally occur. All this with the backdrop of zero interest rates and a record fiscal deficit. Our thoughts on risks in the equity…
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Since early August the “barbarous relic” has corrected some 9% while many other assets have ascended to all-time highs. This has no doubt caused a bit of consternation for holders of gold who have been using the metal not as a hedge, but as a…
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Monday of this week stood out as the single largest day of outperformance of the value style relative to the growth style in 25 years. Many companies that are strongly associated with the value style, such as financials and energy companies, were up in excess…
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As election results continue to trickle in suggesting Joe Biden will be the next president, there still remains a bit of uncertainty with respect the final electoral vote tally as well as any legal challenges that will emerge in the coming days. Even still, the…
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In this presentation, we outline our argument for gold entering a new structural bull market. Download the slides: Foundations for a New Structural Gold Bull Market.
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In recent weeks the market has been notably broader in terms of the upside participation from stocks other than FAANMGs. Typically, this type of action in the early stages of a business cycle would be strongly associated with the “value” style working, since “value” companies…
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Last week we put out a succinct mid-quarter update in which we highlighted 9 negative inputs into a tactical equity framework. This post builds upon that by calling out 7 rather conspicuous divergences that are developing in the financial markets. The VIX index is rising…
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