Markets

Not So Fast on the Cyclical Chinese Recovery November 14, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

This morning investors were unfortunately treated to a rather disappointing package of October Chinese economic data. Three of the most important hard data series were reported: fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales. Each was lower than the previous month and missed expectations, suggesting…

Technology & Materials: Do You Take the Over or the Under? November 08, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

As each day passes and more evidence of some sort of bottom in economic activity emerges, the chances of market rotation into the more beaten down areas of the global equity market would seem to be rising. In fairness, this is likely not 2012 or…

EAFE Equities: Can they Ever Work Again? October 25, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

EAFE stocks, those in the developed Europe and Asia regions, have underperformed US stocks in eight of the last eleven years. That batting average might be decent if you are a professional baseball player, but not so much if you are a professional investor. What’s…

Not QE? October 18, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Last week the Federal Reserve announced the re-commencement of large scale asset purchases in order to alleviate funding pressures that had been bubbling for several months. Much effort has been made by Fed Chairman Powell and other missionaries to explain why this round of asset…

International Value: Optionality on Reflation September 27, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

At some point the global economy will get a dose of reflation. Whether that comes from the current central bank easing cycle, fiscal policy response, coordinated fiscal-monetary action, or a détente in the US-Sino trade dispute is not yet known. However, when it happens a…

Is the Bond Rally Over or is This a Correction in a Downtrend in Treasury Yields? September 13, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

With interest rates on the 10-year US treasury bond having moved nearly 50bps higher over the last 10 days it is certainly worth asking the question if we’ve seen the low in interest rates or whether this is more of a correction in an ongoing…

The Calculus for Fed Inaction is Getting Tougher by the Day August 22, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

Over the last few days investors have been given a good amount of information to digest from incoming economic data, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and Fed speakers opining about monetary policy at the annual Jackson Hole conference. Even still, everyone is waiting on THE speech…

With Friends Like These it’s No Wonder Bonds Continue to Rally August 15, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

How in the heck can the 30 year Treasury bond yield be trading at just 1.97%, an all-time low, when just 10 months ago it was up at 3.46% and “breaking out” to the upside? We were supposed to have a bond-pocalypse, after all, with…

3 Reasons Why More Tariffs are Bullish for Government Bonds August 01, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

Today’s news of 10% tariffs on a the remaining $300bn of imports from China took markets by storm with US stocks moving from a 1% gain to almost a 1% loss on the day. Meanwhile, gold closed at a 6-year high of $1445. But the…

The Debt Ceiling Impasse Has Meant Mini QE Since May – Will Mean QT When Resolved July 18, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

When the US government gets near its statutory debt limit, congress must lift the debt limit in order for the Treasury to continue to issue debt to pay for government expenses. Simple enough. However, even after the debt limit is reached, the Treasury can use…

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Markets

Not So Fast on the Cyclical Chinese Recovery November 14, 2019

Technology & Materials: Do You Take the Over or the Under? November 08, 2019

EAFE Equities: Can they Ever Work Again? October 25, 2019

Not QE? October 18, 2019

International Value: Optionality on Reflation September 27, 2019

Is the Bond Rally Over or is This a Correction in a Downtrend in Treasury Yields? September 13, 2019

The Calculus for Fed Inaction is Getting Tougher by the Day August 22, 2019

With Friends Like These it’s No Wonder Bonds Continue to Rally August 15, 2019

3 Reasons Why More Tariffs are Bullish for Government Bonds August 01, 2019

The Debt Ceiling Impasse Has Meant Mini QE Since May – Will Mean QT When Resolved July 18, 2019

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