Markets

Crash Watch May 12, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

The template of 1929 and 1987 is coming into focus in recent trading days. Let’s start with the 1929 crash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average began the week of October 5 with a slight gain, and then the rest of the week (October 6-9) were…

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The Chinese Devaluation Continues May 11, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Just today, as US inflation came in a touch hotter than expected, the Chinese Yuan is pulling lower, testing the lows of May 9, 2022. The five-day rate of change is fairly extreme by anything we’ve seen over the last few years. The last time…

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Thoughts on Fed Meeting and Rest of Year May 04, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Today the Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate (upper bound) to 1% from 50bps. The most surprising element of the press conference was the Chairman dismissing that the committee is not “actively” considering a 75bps hike right now. This sent algos into…

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Macron Won, So Why Didn’t the Euro? April 25, 2022

Posted by Brian Clark in Markets, News

With France’s polls closing yesterday Emmanuel Macron will now serve a second consecutive term as the president of France, the first to do so since Jacques Chirac in 2002. Heading into the vote, Macron had an 80-90% chance of victory according to analysts, representing a…

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Navigating a Minefield April 12, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

In this quarter’s strategy report, Navigating a Minefield, we discuss the following: -The Fed is tightening into a growth slowdown. Unlike in 2015, the Fed has just lifted off while the ISM Manufacturing is contracting and real GDP estimates for 2022 are steadily falling. If…

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Will They or Won’t They? March 08, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, News

The Federal Reserve has all but cemented expectations for a 25bps rate hike next week. But, events have changed a lot in the last couple weeks that raise a faint hint that the Fed may not hike, despite elevated, persistent inflation. What makes us question…

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Is It Time to Find New Hedges? March 02, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

2022 has been a tough year so far for risk management. This appears to us related to the inflation problem the US is experiencing.  As long as inflation persists, the ineffectiveness of duration will likely persist. We think inflation will persist and are thus broadening…

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The Diet Coke of Sanctions February 24, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, News

After President Biden’s speech, the consensus seemed to coalesce around the idea that the sanctions put forth were not as strong as they possibly could have been. Chiefly, due to a disagreement with Europe, Russia was allowed to remain in the SWIFT payment system—the system…

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Has Oil Gotten Ahead of Itself? February 14, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Of course, the backdrop right now is Russia—a large petroleum-producing country—threatening to invade Ukraine. This is clearly roiling the oil markets and leading to ever higher prices. Have those prices gotten ahead of the fundamentals and technicals? US West Texas Intermediate oil prices tend to…

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Is Inflation on the Cusp of Coming Down? February 09, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Tomorrow we get the consumer price index year-over-year for January, with expectations for 7.25%. This would take the CPI to a new high for the cycle, rising from 7% year-over-year from December. We would like to see the print undershoot and offer several reasons why…

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Is It Time to Buy the Dip … in Health Care Stocks? January 19, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

For all the following charts, we are looking at the sector performance and internals of our group of companies within each sector in North America. We look at the top 85% of market cap, so we consider both large and mid-caps. In the table below,…

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Powell Successfully Walks the Tightrope January 11, 2022

Posted by Austin Mann in Economy, Markets, News

Below we highlight a few takeaways from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s confirmation hearing today before the Senate Banking Committee, broken down by topic. -Focus on “less accommodative” moves -Powell made numerous statements indicating that COVID, though prevalent, will not be as pressing in policy decisions…

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