Since early August the “barbarous relic” has corrected some 9% while many other assets have ascended to all-time highs. This has no doubt caused a bit of consternation for holders of gold who have been using the metal not as a hedge, but as a…
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Monday of this week stood out as the single largest day of outperformance of the value style relative to the growth style in 25 years. Many companies that are strongly associated with the value style, such as financials and energy companies, were up in excess…
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As election results continue to trickle in suggesting Joe Biden will be the next president, there still remains a bit of uncertainty with respect the final electoral vote tally as well as any legal challenges that will emerge in the coming days. Even still, the…
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In this presentation, we outline our argument for gold entering a new structural bull market. Download the slides: Foundations for a New Structural Gold Bull Market.
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In recent weeks the market has been notably broader in terms of the upside participation from stocks other than FAANMGs. Typically, this type of action in the early stages of a business cycle would be strongly associated with the “value” style working, since “value” companies…
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Last week we put out a succinct mid-quarter update in which we highlighted 9 negative inputs into a tactical equity framework. This post builds upon that by calling out 7 rather conspicuous divergences that are developing in the financial markets. The VIX index is rising…
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The bank stocks are at it again as they make another new 52-week relative performance low compared to the broad market. It’s a perennial issue. Over the last year the KBW Bank Index, an index of 24 of the largest US banks, has underperformed the…
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We believe the risks of an intermediate decline are higher than average and would advocate a more cautious stance toward equities right now. The S&P 500 just turned positive for the year after a wild ride that saw the index plunge 34.07% in 23 trading…
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Over the last few weeks there has been quite a bit of chatter among strategists about whether the market is undergoing a sustainable rotation into “value” stocks from “growth” stocks. It’s a bit surprising to us to see the outpouring of commentary on the issue,…
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Over the weekend the world learned of the Senate Republican’s “opening bid” for the next round of fiscal stimulus in the United States. That number came in at a nice, round $1tn. Now, as large as that number is, it still pales in comparison to…
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With the US dollar index recently having completed a so called “death cross”, we thought it would be a good opportunity to review the investment implications of a potential trend change in the USD. The “death cross” is a technical chart formation in which the…
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Regular readers of our content know that we have been building the case for several years now on why gold deserves a place in diversified portfolios. Sure, we see significant upside in gold (unlimited upside, in fact), aided as I will show by the unprecedented…
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As funding strains appeared in March, the USD surged. Then the Fed stepped in with massive foreign exchange swaps as a way to lend USD to foreign central banks, intended to ultimately be lent to borrowers in need of USD. As F/X swaps reached almost…
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The returns of the 2009-2020 bull market were nothing short of extraordinary. From the 2009 low in the S&P 500 to the 2020 high, stocks gained a massive 488%, or nearly 18% on an annualized basis. This compares to an average nominal price return for…
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Even as the stock market chugs up the wall of worry, we were reminded today that the economic fundamentals remain mired in simply unprecedented territory. As you can see in the first chart below, April saw both the largest increase ever in personal income (blue…
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