Markets

North America Sector Performance Since the October Low March 02, 2023

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

North American developed market large-mid stocks (United States and Canada) bottomed simultaneously with other developed markets on 10/12/22, recovering over 10% since then. Also since October, the Bloomberg North American Large-Mid Index has experienced a “golden cross” wherein the 50-day moving average rises above the…

Does European Equity Performance Point to End of Bear Market? March 02, 2023

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Earlier this week, Steve wrote about developed market performance since the low on 10/12/22. Here, I take a deeper dive into the performance of European stocks since that date. The Bloomberg Europe DM Large-Mid Index bottomed on 9/26/22 at 854.46, and after a short blip…

Developed Market Performance Since the 10/12/22 Low February 28, 2023

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets

Stocks ground into a low on October 12, 2022, and have since recovered about 15.21%. The Morningstar Developed Markets Large-Mid Cap Index has also experienced a golden cross where the 50-day moving average rises through the 200-day moving average. Generally, I view a security trading…

European Markets Grapple with Nagging Reality February 23, 2023

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets

Investor concerns over the potential for poor European growth in the foreseeable future have eased thanks to the flurry of economic data coming out stronger than expected this year. That same data though has led investors to again fear what they thought was behind them…

Japan’s Non-Inflation Scare February 22, 2023

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets

The Japanese Government Bond 10-year breakeven inflation has run contra to recent worldwide trends as one of the few sovereign rates of its kind to decline year to date. Where the rest of the world has moved on from a “growth scare” to an “inflation…

Fed’s Policy Path Back in Center of Attention February 22, 2023

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets

Investors’ fears over a slowing US economy have seemingly been replaced with renewed fears over inflation and the possibility of a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. Despite progress on lower goods inflation and signs that economy was cooling in December, price pressures have…

Mid-Quarter Update: The Globalization Myth February 17, 2023

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

The common narrative is that we’ve (the US) been enjoying a long period of globalization and now that it is going into reverse, it will upend many of the benefits brought by globalization, to the US in particular. We think this is the wrong way…

Turkey Drags Down Emerging Markets EMEA Stocks February 15, 2023

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Last week, I dissected developed markets EMEA (DM EMEA) stock performance by sector and found that the consumer discretionary sector was driving upward performance. This week, I dig into emerging markets across the European, Middle East and Africa region. We use our Mid-Large emerging markets…

Brazil: Dragging Down EM Americas Performance February 14, 2023

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

Last week I looked at how Canadian stocks underperformed US stocks this year, decomposing North American Performance. This week I take a look at EM Americas performance. First, I look at the Mid-Large EM Americas universe, which includes the top 85% of stocks for market…

Consumer Discretionary Sector Has Driven European Equity Performance YTD February 10, 2023

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

As inflation fears have receded somewhat—though we’ll see in next week’s US CPI report how much they really have receded—European stocks have had a good start to the year. In the table below, I take the top 85% by market cap of large-mid firms from…

Why is the U.S. Market Trouncing Canada Year-to-Date? February 08, 2023

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

So far this year, American stocks have outperformed Canadian stocks. In this post I’ll look at recent performance of equities in the U.S. and Canada to understand what drove the difference between the two countries’ equity performance year-to-date. For this analysis, I start by taking…

A Goldilocks Job Report January 09, 2023

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

As the market continues to rally on Monday, we can’t help but ask ourselves what data nugget might we have missed from last Friday’s data? Let’s start with the more difficult data: the employment report. On the surface, the report showed a gain of 223,000…

Quarterly Strategy Report: Global Equity Opportunities January 03, 2023

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Knowledge Leaders, Markets, Portfolio Management

In our Quarterly Strategy Report, we illustrate the relative attractiveness of select developed international sectors. Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here. 1. Summary -Monetary policy is considerably more restrictive than many perceive. The San Francisco Federal Reserve has calculated a “Proxy Rate” that…

Inversion December 20, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

In a recent San Francisco Federal Reserve Publication titled “Monetary Policy Stance is Tighter Than Fed Funds Rate,” the authors argue that the “all in” policy rate is actually higher than the Fed Funds rate would suggest. They open: “The Federal Reserve’s use of forward…

Does the Inflation Risk Premium Decline Signal Lower Commodity Prices? November 28, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

There are many ways to decompose the bond market to identify the component pieces to infer what the market is pricing in. The nominal long US Treasury bond is a function of two things: 1) the average expected future nominal short-term interest rate, and 2)…

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