It would appear that the decline in European natural gas prices has contributed to an increase in Eurozone GDP estimates for the year. Once prices crossed below $50, GDP estimates began to rise, and now the consensus expects .6% GDP growth from the Eurozone this…
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China reported year-over-year inflation last night at just 0.1%, 0.2% lower than expectations. Clearly China’s reopening is not creating price pressures, which brings the strength of the reopening into some question. Recently, we saw a fairly significant drop in China’s PMIs—all of them well below…
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While earnings season in the US is winding down, European companies generally take a bit longer to report, which puts us squarely in the middle of Europe’s earnings season. Today, we will examine trends in fully reported developed Europe large-cap companies by sector. Our basket…
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With approximately 80% of companies in the S&P 500 reporting, now is a good time to take a look at how developed market Americas (US and Canada) large cap stocks faired on a sector level. To construct our stock universe we take 70% of the…
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Developed Asia’s large cap stocks have had a generally positive earnings season so far. Earnings per share from companies that have already reported have averaged a surprise to the upside of almost 12% on an equal-weighted basis, with 28 of the 47 equities in our…
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With inflation receding in the US, the Chinese Yuan (CNY) has been depreciating. At peak US inflation, the CNY got down to 6.35, while it has risen to 6.92 in the last year. Inflation getting back to 2% would seem to be consistent with a…
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With the European Market’s earning season fully upon us, let’s look at expectations for the month ahead. According to our proprietary analytics, the European energy and real estate sectors have experienced the highest level of downward revision to sales of all sectors on both a…
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While Asian financial companies have by no means been safe from the recent banking turmoil scything through other developed economies, regional banks have had a far less punishing month in terms of sales and earnings estimates than their peers in other markets. The financials sector…
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This week as regional banks start reporting earnings we will get a better look at the lasting effects of the bank crisis kicked off by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank last month. Looking at recent earnings forecast revisions, regional banks appear particularly exposed to…
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As banks back away from credit creation, we think certain assets could reassert their leadership. In our Quarterly Strategy Report, we analyze the Credit Crunch. Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here. 1. Summary -The recent banking crisis, with several banks being…
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Pharma and biotech in developed Asia has been among the region’s worst performing industry groups in the last year, but our research suggests that their recent underperformance may be somewhat overblown. Recent performance places these companies squarely in the bottom fifth of industry groups for…
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The fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and the continued troubles of other lenders has not been contained to the Western Hemisphere. Market implied policy rates for developed markets in Asia responded quickly and forcefully to fears of banking contagion from the US and…
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We just experienced the fastest bank run in history with the closure of Silicon Valley Bank. Apparently over 40% of the company’s deposits fled last Thursday and early Friday before closure. To put this is context, when Continental Illinois—at the time, the largest ever bank…
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For decades since the end of the Cold War there have been very limited restrictions on foreign investments by US investors compared to those of other countries. This has allowed US investors to transact in a wide array of international investment options. Indeed, following the…
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The Nikkei 225 (NKY) peaked in December 1989, and in local currency, has yet to reach the previous peak. But, I look at stocks from the standpoint of a US investor, meaning any foreign asset needs to be translated into USD. Yes, one can hedge…
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