Portfolio Management

Four Technical Patterns in the Tech Sector September 14, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

Using our proprietary point-and-figure-based charting system, I review a couple thousand charts per week in an attempt to identify interesting buy or sale candidates. I am never satisfied with sector or industry-level narratives because underneath the surface, there is always more than one narrative going…

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Navigating a Minefield April 12, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

In this quarter’s strategy report, Navigating a Minefield, we discuss the following: -The Fed is tightening into a growth slowdown. Unlike in 2015, the Fed has just lifted off while the ISM Manufacturing is contracting and real GDP estimates for 2022 are steadily falling. If…

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Is It Time to Find New Hedges? March 02, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

2022 has been a tough year so far for risk management. This appears to us related to the inflation problem the US is experiencing.  As long as inflation persists, the ineffectiveness of duration will likely persist. We think inflation will persist and are thus broadening…

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Forward Thinking: 2022 January 06, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Knowledge Leaders, Markets, Portfolio Management

In this quarter’s strategy report, Forward Thinking 2022, we discuss the following: -US economic growth is expected to be quite robust in 2022, despite the disruptions from the Omicron variant. Capital spending is expected to lead economic growth, which makes sense as companies invest in…

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Special Report: Seasonal Tailwinds November 01, 2021

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

We find compelling evidence that seasonal factors exist, historically leading November and December to be the highest 2-month combined returns all year. In our allocation portfolios, we have increased our equity exposure significantly in an effort to capitalize on these year-end trends. Please find below…

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Is the Re-Opening/Value Trade Over? July 07, 2021

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

Interest rates have been falling in recent months leading some to speculate that the “re-opening” trade has run its course. This in turn begs the question as to whether the “value” trade is over. On both accounts, we see signals that still point to an…

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Is Secular Leadership in US Technology Over? May 20, 2021

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

We believe the US technology sector has reached a level of valuation such that it is has the potential to substantially subtract from portfolio returns going forward. In this mid-quarter update, we: -Highlight how we monitor valuations in the global stock markets while shining a…

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