Portfolio Management

Lumber and Copper Prices are Diverging – Which is Signal and Which is Noise? April 12, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Portfolio Management

The tale from some of the most cyclical and predictive economic indicators are telling investors two very different things at the moment. Copper, the metal with a PhD in economics is giving us the all-clear sign while lumber, which is perhaps only regarded as having…

Housing Has More Downside, but Homebuilders Have More Upside March 28, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

Investors have been given another slug of wanting housing data this week. First it was building permits which surprised to the downside and today it was pending home sales, which fell 4.9% YoY vs expectations of a 1.8% drop. Both building permits and pending home…

US Yields Could Still Have Quite a Bit More Downside March 20, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

To the dismay of many observers, US treasury yields have been dead as a doorknob despite the 20% rally in stocks over the last three months. In fact, the US 10-year yield is on the verge of breaking below the 2.56% level it reached on…

Five Indicators Suggesting 2000 may be a Better Analog than 1998 January 22, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Portfolio Management

As a conceptual exercise, it may be useful to frame the current episode of market volatility (both upside and downside volatility) from the perspective of the stock market declines in 1998 and 2000. This is because the market decline in 1998 (fueled by the disrupting…

There is Statistical Merit to this Oversold Condition in Stocks as Buying Opportunity December 28, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

The oversold condition in stocks that has developed over the last several weeks is more than trivial. I highlighted on Christmas Eve the baker’s dozen reasons why equity markets could tactically rally from that point, showing extremes in a variety of indicators. Extremes of the…

Santa’s Gift to Investors: Global Oversold Conditions Present Buying Opportunity December 28, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

The S&P 500 experienced a waterfall decline in December, something rarely seen. Measuring the decline using a 30-day Wilder Relative Strength Index, it is clear the extremes recently experienced. On Christmas Eve, the S&P 500 punctured 30% on the RSI, something that has only happened…

Mr. Diversification is Bringing Gifts This Holiday Season After a Long Hiatus December 21, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

We are quite sure many of our readers are eager to turn the calendar and be done with 2018’s turbulent and unforgiving markets. After all, US stocks have gyrated wildly for the entire year, foreign stocks have gotten absolutely no love, and traditional diversifiers like…

Mid-Quarter Update: The Fed is Tightening More than it Realizes November 30, 2018

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

The Federal Reserve is in the midst of an historic tightening cycle, and it has begun to impact the economy. The latest casualty is the decline in oil prices, which opens up a new set of possibilities in asset allocation. In this special report, we look at the…

Energy Sector Performance in Context October 30, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Knowledge Leaders, Markets, Portfolio Management

Energy is the best performing sector in four of six market-regions. (From two market groups, Developed and Emerging, and three regions, Americas, EMEA, Asia, we get six market-regions.) Among Developed Market sectors, energy is 5th YTD, down about 5% less than the MSCI All Country…

Quarterly Strategy Update: The Investment Consequences of a Normalization in Long Rates October 25, 2018

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

On this quarter’s conference call, Steve and Bryce dissected US Treasury bonds, discussing the message of the rates market and how this is directing asset allocation. The following slide deck covers their discussion of the following: The bond market has enjoyed a 10-year tailwind from…

Wages Are Rising and The Phillips Curve is Not Dead September 07, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

The Phillips Curve (the relationship between wages and the unemployment rate) finally awoke from its slumber with today’s unemployment report showing private sector wages rising 2.9% year-over-year and non-supervisory wages rising 2.8% year-over-year, the fastest growth rate since 2009. Even more important than that, though,…

Performance Trends Outside the US are Downright Bad August 31, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

Chalk it up to strength of the US dollar, trade, policy risk, or whatever, stocks outside of the US are in bad shape. One of the ways we systematically measure the relative attractiveness of a stock in a particular sector, region or country is to…

Quarterly Strategy Update: What We Know, What We Think & What We Are Unsure Of July 26, 2018

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

Recently, fears of a slowdown in global growth brought on by a trade war have led to turbulence in cyclical assets. The US Dollar has risen while commodities and emerging markets have struggled. The Chinese Yuan has depreciated significantly, recalling fears of the 2014-2016 industrial…

Tale of the Tape: Equity Investors More Concerned About Rising Inflation Than Slowing Growth July 23, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Knowledge Leaders, Portfolio Management

We calculate statistics for all developed and emerging equity markets around the world. For our mid/large cap indexes, we take the top 85% of all stocks in a given region or country and convert all prices into US Dollars. These Knowledge Leaders Selection Universe (KLSU)…

Mid-Quarter Update: The Monetary Policy Pitchfork June 15, 2018

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets, News, Portfolio Management

The big three central banks (Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) met this week to review their monetary stance. In this mid-quarter update, we share our analysis, The Monetary Policy Pitchfork. Summary: After a decade of emergency monetary policy, the major…

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An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Any reference to Index performance does not represent the performance of any investment product offered by Knowledge Leaders Capital, LLC. The performance of client account may vary from the Index performance. Index returns shown are not reflective of actual investor performance nor do they reflect fees and expenses applicable to investing. The Index data is the property of Knowledge Leaders Capital, LLC, which has contracted with SolactiveAG to calculate and maintain the indexes.

The launch date of the Knowledge Leaders Knowledge Leaders Developed World Index (Bloomberg ticker KNLGX is 7/1/14 and the base date of the index calculation is 3/31/2000. The launch date of the Knowledge Leaders Emerging Markets Index (Bloomberg ticker KNLGEX) is 9/2/14 and the base date of the index calculation is 4/1/2005. The launch date of the Knowledge Leaders International Index (Bloomberg ticker KNLGINX) is 8/15/16 and the base date of the index calculation is 3/31/2000. The launch date of the Knowledge Leaders United States Index (Bloomberg ticker KNLGUSX) is 8/15/16 and the base date of the index calculation is 3/31/2000. The launch date of the Knowledge Leaders Developed World ADR Index (Bloomberg ticker KNLGAX) is 9/13/16 and the base date of the index calculation is 3/31/2000. The launch date of the Knowledge Leaders International ADR Index (Bloomberg ticker KNLGINAX) is 8/30/16 and the base date of the index calculation is 3/31/2000.

The returns of the Index prior to the launch date are based on applying the rules in effect as of the launch date retroactively to historical periods to and including the base date. Results are not based on an Index that was maintained in real time. The pre-inception performance results of the Index are hypothetical returns which have been compiled by Knowledge Leaders Capital. The performance results are based upon a hypothetical model. Hypothetical performance results may have inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account did or was likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are prepared with the benefit of hindsight. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading strategy which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. These returns should not be considered as indicative of the skills of the investment adviser.To obtain additional index methodology and constituent components, please visit KnowledgeLeadersCapital.com.

Companies are selected for “Spotlights” based on high levels of innovation activities in their industries and illustrate innovation being employed across all sectors and geographies. Spotlight selection is separate from stock selection by the investment team. Spotlights are not necessarily representative of investment opportunities and can be selected regardless of investment performance.

Portfolio Management

Lumber and Copper Prices are Diverging – Which is Signal and Which is Noise? April 12, 2019

Housing Has More Downside, but Homebuilders Have More Upside March 28, 2019

US Yields Could Still Have Quite a Bit More Downside March 20, 2019

Five Indicators Suggesting 2000 may be a Better Analog than 1998 January 22, 2019

There is Statistical Merit to this Oversold Condition in Stocks as Buying Opportunity December 28, 2018

Santa’s Gift to Investors: Global Oversold Conditions Present Buying Opportunity December 28, 2018

Mr. Diversification is Bringing Gifts This Holiday Season After a Long Hiatus December 21, 2018

Mid-Quarter Update: The Fed is Tightening More than it Realizes November 30, 2018

Energy Sector Performance in Context October 30, 2018

Quarterly Strategy Update: The Investment Consequences of a Normalization in Long Rates October 25, 2018

Wages Are Rising and The Phillips Curve is Not Dead September 07, 2018

Performance Trends Outside the US are Downright Bad August 31, 2018

Quarterly Strategy Update: What We Know, What We Think & What We Are Unsure Of July 26, 2018

Tale of the Tape: Equity Investors More Concerned About Rising Inflation Than Slowing Growth July 23, 2018

Mid-Quarter Update: The Monetary Policy Pitchfork June 15, 2018

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