Portfolio Management

Which Way the US Dollar Breaks Will Have Major Asset Allocation Implications for the Second Half of 2019 April 18, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

The US dollar is on the cusp of making a major move. The question is which way will it go, higher or lower? The directional movement of the US dollar will have significant asset performance implications once the tug of war between dollar bears and…

Lumber and Copper Prices are Diverging – Which is Signal and Which is Noise? April 12, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Portfolio Management

The tale from some of the most cyclical and predictive economic indicators are telling investors two very different things at the moment. Copper, the metal with a PhD in economics is giving us the all-clear sign while lumber, which is perhaps only regarded as having…

Housing Has More Downside, but Homebuilders Have More Upside March 28, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

Investors have been given another slug of wanting housing data this week. First it was building permits which surprised to the downside and today it was pending home sales, which fell 4.9% YoY vs expectations of a 1.8% drop. Both building permits and pending home…

US Yields Could Still Have Quite a Bit More Downside March 20, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

To the dismay of many observers, US treasury yields have been dead as a doorknob despite the 20% rally in stocks over the last three months. In fact, the US 10-year yield is on the verge of breaking below the 2.56% level it reached on…

Five Indicators Suggesting 2000 may be a Better Analog than 1998 January 22, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Portfolio Management

As a conceptual exercise, it may be useful to frame the current episode of market volatility (both upside and downside volatility) from the perspective of the stock market declines in 1998 and 2000. This is because the market decline in 1998 (fueled by the disrupting…

There is Statistical Merit to this Oversold Condition in Stocks as Buying Opportunity December 28, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

The oversold condition in stocks that has developed over the last several weeks is more than trivial. I highlighted on Christmas Eve the baker’s dozen reasons why equity markets could tactically rally from that point, showing extremes in a variety of indicators. Extremes of the…

Santa’s Gift to Investors: Global Oversold Conditions Present Buying Opportunity December 28, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, Portfolio Management

The S&P 500 experienced a waterfall decline in December, something rarely seen. Measuring the decline using a 30-day Wilder Relative Strength Index, it is clear the extremes recently experienced. On Christmas Eve, the S&P 500 punctured 30% on the RSI, something that has only happened…

Mr. Diversification is Bringing Gifts This Holiday Season After a Long Hiatus December 21, 2018

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

We are quite sure many of our readers are eager to turn the calendar and be done with 2018’s turbulent and unforgiving markets. After all, US stocks have gyrated wildly for the entire year, foreign stocks have gotten absolutely no love, and traditional diversifiers like…

Mid-Quarter Update: The Fed is Tightening More than it Realizes November 30, 2018

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

The Federal Reserve is in the midst of an historic tightening cycle, and it has begun to impact the economy. The latest casualty is the decline in oil prices, which opens up a new set of possibilities in asset allocation. In this special report, we look at the…

Energy Sector Performance in Context October 30, 2018

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Knowledge Leaders, Markets, Portfolio Management

Energy is the best performing sector in four of six market-regions. (From two market groups, Developed and Emerging, and three regions, Americas, EMEA, Asia, we get six market-regions.) Among Developed Market sectors, energy is 5th YTD, down about 5% less than the MSCI All Country…

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Portfolio Management

Which Way the US Dollar Breaks Will Have Major Asset Allocation Implications for the Second Half of 2019 April 18, 2019

Lumber and Copper Prices are Diverging – Which is Signal and Which is Noise? April 12, 2019

Housing Has More Downside, but Homebuilders Have More Upside March 28, 2019

US Yields Could Still Have Quite a Bit More Downside March 20, 2019

Five Indicators Suggesting 2000 may be a Better Analog than 1998 January 22, 2019

There is Statistical Merit to this Oversold Condition in Stocks as Buying Opportunity December 28, 2018

Santa’s Gift to Investors: Global Oversold Conditions Present Buying Opportunity December 28, 2018

Mr. Diversification is Bringing Gifts This Holiday Season After a Long Hiatus December 21, 2018

Mid-Quarter Update: The Fed is Tightening More than it Realizes November 30, 2018

Energy Sector Performance in Context October 30, 2018

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