News

Cracking and Pivoting June 22, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, News

The President today asked Congress for a gasoline tax holiday to alleviate the cost of gasoline and diesel in the country. This is not the solution. With the exception of a 200,000 barrel/day refinery in Garyville, Louisiana, built by Marathon Petroleum in July 2020, there…

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An Inflection Point in the Labor Market? May 26, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, News

As everyone knows, the labor market has been quite strong, with expectations for the unemployment rate to fall further next week. Much has been made of the relationship between job openings and unemployed people that are in the labor force. The ratio of job openings…

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Thoughts on Fed Meeting and Rest of Year May 04, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Today the Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate (upper bound) to 1% from 50bps. The most surprising element of the press conference was the Chairman dismissing that the committee is not “actively” considering a 75bps hike right now. This sent algos into…

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Macron Won, So Why Didn’t the Euro? April 25, 2022

Posted by Brian Clark in Markets, News

With France’s polls closing yesterday Emmanuel Macron will now serve a second consecutive term as the president of France, the first to do so since Jacques Chirac in 2002. Heading into the vote, Macron had an 80-90% chance of victory according to analysts, representing a…

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Will They or Won’t They? March 08, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, News

The Federal Reserve has all but cemented expectations for a 25bps rate hike next week. But, events have changed a lot in the last couple weeks that raise a faint hint that the Fed may not hike, despite elevated, persistent inflation. What makes us question…

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The Diet Coke of Sanctions February 24, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, News

After President Biden’s speech, the consensus seemed to coalesce around the idea that the sanctions put forth were not as strong as they possibly could have been. Chiefly, due to a disagreement with Europe, Russia was allowed to remain in the SWIFT payment system—the system…

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Powell Successfully Walks the Tightrope January 11, 2022

Posted by Austin Mann in Economy, Markets, News

Below we highlight a few takeaways from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s confirmation hearing today before the Senate Banking Committee, broken down by topic. -Focus on “less accommodative” moves -Powell made numerous statements indicating that COVID, though prevalent, will not be as pressing in policy decisions…

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Why the Fed Cut Rates by 50bps: Will it Help? March 03, 2020

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Despite the relief rally yesterday, financial conditions have tightened significantly in the last couple weeks. This likely explains why the Fed just made an emergency 50bps cut to the fed funds rate. The graph below highlights that the two main areas of weaker financial conditions…

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Mid-Quarter Update: Prognosis Negative February 28, 2020

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, News

Widespread underperformance of Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks is a significant negative indicator for US stocks in our view. In this special report, we present charts of the 30 Dow stocks relative to long-duration US treasury bonds and gold for the last five years. Spoiler:…

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Ready for Action? February 24, 2020

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Former Fed Governor and now professor at the University of Rochester, Narayana Kocherlakota penned the following short opinion piece in Bloomberg this morning: Fed Shouldn’t Wait to Cut Interest Rates: Narayana Kocherlakota By Narayana Kocherlakota The world economy is facing a material risk in the…

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(VIDEO) Our Hidden Gem from Inside ETFs Last Week February 22, 2019

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Knowledge Leaders, News

Last week we were selected as a “Hidden Gem” at the Inside ETF conference in Hollywood, Florida. Steven Vannelli gave a 3-minute pitch on our investment strategy. Here’s what he said. Knowledge Leaders Hidden Gems 3-min Pitch   “Hidden Gems” are 12 under-the-radar ETF ideas…

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Geopolitics Outlook 2019: Q&A with Peter Zeihan January 04, 2019

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

As the year ended with global unknowns and market uncertainties weighing on investors’ minds, we sat down with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan to discuss his outlook for 2019. His top predictions included calls on Brexit, a US-Britain trade deal, China’s exit from world trade, new…

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What We’re Reading August 21, 2018

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, News

Recently we were asked about the latest books and ideas contributing to our economic analysis. Here’s an incomplete list of what we’ve been reading this summer. Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy  By Dani Rodrik A discussion of free trade and…

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