With approximately 80% of companies in the S&P 500 reporting, now is a good time to take a look at how developed market Americas (US and Canada) large cap stocks faired on a sector level. To construct our stock universe we take 70% of the…
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Developed Asia’s large cap stocks have had a generally positive earnings season so far. Earnings per share from companies that have already reported have averaged a surprise to the upside of almost 12% on an equal-weighted basis, with 28 of the 47 equities in our…
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Tomorrow, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey will give us more information on US consumers’ inflation expectations. The survey respondents’ inflation expectations, as other analysts have pointed out, are highly correlated with gasoline prices, which rose in March by 3.7%. This survey, along with…
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Yesterday JP Morgan introduced a new model to quantify the last 20 years of Federal Reserve statements and speeches. While we aren’t privy to the details of the AI model, we will just assume that the model properly captures dovish and hawkish language. Based on…
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With the European Market’s earning season fully upon us, let’s look at expectations for the month ahead. According to our proprietary analytics, the European energy and real estate sectors have experienced the highest level of downward revision to sales of all sectors on both a…
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While Asian financial companies have by no means been safe from the recent banking turmoil scything through other developed economies, regional banks have had a far less punishing month in terms of sales and earnings estimates than their peers in other markets. The financials sector…
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This week as regional banks start reporting earnings we will get a better look at the lasting effects of the bank crisis kicked off by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank last month. Looking at recent earnings forecast revisions, regional banks appear particularly exposed to…
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The Fed’s concern about U.S. banks dominated last month’s FOMC meeting. According to today’s release of the March 21-22 meeting minutes, the Fed was apparently so concerned over banking problems and the potential for an ensuing credit crunch that officials tempered calls for rate hikes,…
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Lost in the Good Friday holiday and the jobs report was the weekly report on bank lending, deposits and securities holdings. Keeping in mind this data is always a week old, it shows the retreat from banks continues. Small banks have now experienced about $250…
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As banks back away from credit creation, we think certain assets could reassert their leadership. In our Quarterly Strategy Report, we analyze the Credit Crunch. Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here. 1. Summary -The recent banking crisis, with several banks being…
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The failures of Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and the current struggles of First Republic and Pacific Western Bank have seen bank deposits flee to the perceived safety of large banks. In the chart below, one can see the flight of deposits from…
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Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below. Given the tumult surrounding banks recently, and a series of relatively dismal economic data releases out of Japan, this isn’t exactly surprising….
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The chart below demonstrates the multi-year decline in Credit Suisse’s business. Credit Suisse’s problems revealed today stem from issues the company discussed last June in a profit warning. Below is a chart of Credit Suisse’s assets under management discussed during that profit warning. According to…
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We just experienced the fastest bank run in history with the closure of Silicon Valley Bank. Apparently over 40% of the company’s deposits fled last Thursday and early Friday before closure. To put this is context, when Continental Illinois—at the time, the largest ever bank…
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For decades since the end of the Cold War there have been very limited restrictions on foreign investments by US investors compared to those of other countries. This has allowed US investors to transact in a wide array of international investment options. Indeed, following the…
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