News

Quarterly Strategy Report: Credit Crunch April 03, 2023

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

As banks back away from credit creation, we think certain assets could reassert their leadership. In our Quarterly Strategy Report, we analyze the Credit Crunch. Prefer to download this presentation in PDF? Please click here. 1. Summary -The recent banking crisis, with several banks being…

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What are JGBs Trying to Tell Us? March 23, 2023

Posted by Tom Nemechek in Economy, News

Yields on 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds have fallen by about a third over the past two weeks, as shown in the chart below. Given the tumult surrounding banks recently, and a series of relatively dismal economic data releases out of Japan, this isn’t exactly surprising….

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Credit Suisse’s Chickens Come Home to Roost March 15, 2023

Posted by Austin Mann in Economy, News

The chart below demonstrates the multi-year decline in Credit Suisse’s business. Credit Suisse’s problems revealed today stem from issues the company discussed last June in a profit warning. Below is a chart of Credit Suisse’s assets under management discussed during that profit warning. According to…

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Fed Repriced Out of Action March 13, 2023

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

We just experienced the fastest bank run in history with the closure of Silicon Valley Bank. Apparently over 40% of the company’s deposits fled last Thursday and early Friday before closure. To put this is context, when Continental Illinois—at the time, the largest ever bank…

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The US and China: The Tech Cold War Continues March 07, 2023

Posted by Brian Clark in Markets, News

For decades since the end of the Cold War there have been very limited restrictions on foreign investments by US investors compared to those of other countries. This has allowed US investors to transact in a wide array of international investment options. Indeed, following the…

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Steve Vannelli Interview on ARK Invest’s “For Your Innovation” Podcast November 17, 2022

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

After our recent quarterly report, “Has Innovation Bottomed?” ​​​​Knowledge Leaders Capital CEO and CIO Steven Vannelli, CFA, was invited to be a guest on ARK Invest’s For Your Innovation Podcast. In the episode below, Steve and ARK Invest’s Renato Leggi, CFA, CAIA, discuss not only…

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The Deus ex Machina Scenario August 19, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Given all the confusion in the world around COVID, supply chains, inflation dynamics and war, there are lots of potential externalities that could resolve themselves unexpectedly. We call this the Deus ex Machina scenario. Our analysis follows in our Mid-Quarter Update. Prefer to download this presentation…

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Cracking and Pivoting June 22, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, News

The President today asked Congress for a gasoline tax holiday to alleviate the cost of gasoline and diesel in the country. This is not the solution. With the exception of a 200,000 barrel/day refinery in Garyville, Louisiana, built by Marathon Petroleum in July 2020, there…

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An Inflection Point in the Labor Market? May 26, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, News

As everyone knows, the labor market has been quite strong, with expectations for the unemployment rate to fall further next week. Much has been made of the relationship between job openings and unemployed people that are in the labor force. The ratio of job openings…

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Thoughts on Fed Meeting and Rest of Year May 04, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Today the Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate (upper bound) to 1% from 50bps. The most surprising element of the press conference was the Chairman dismissing that the committee is not “actively” considering a 75bps hike right now. This sent algos into…

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Macron Won, So Why Didn’t the Euro? April 25, 2022

Posted by Brian Clark in Markets, News

With France’s polls closing yesterday Emmanuel Macron will now serve a second consecutive term as the president of France, the first to do so since Jacques Chirac in 2002. Heading into the vote, Macron had an 80-90% chance of victory according to analysts, representing a…

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Will They or Won’t They? March 08, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, News

The Federal Reserve has all but cemented expectations for a 25bps rate hike next week. But, events have changed a lot in the last couple weeks that raise a faint hint that the Fed may not hike, despite elevated, persistent inflation. What makes us question…

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The Diet Coke of Sanctions February 24, 2022

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, News

After President Biden’s speech, the consensus seemed to coalesce around the idea that the sanctions put forth were not as strong as they possibly could have been. Chiefly, due to a disagreement with Europe, Russia was allowed to remain in the SWIFT payment system—the system…

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