Economy

4Q Growth Expectations Crashing: A Tailwind for Bonds November 15, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

Today’s US economic data releases have sent growth expectations plunging for fourth quarter GDP. First, retail sales ex-autos and gasoline rose only .1% in October, well below the .3% expectation. Second, industrial production fell twice as much as expected in October, dropping -.8% compared to…

Read More

Not So Fast on the Cyclical Chinese Recovery November 14, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

This morning investors were unfortunately treated to a rather disappointing package of October Chinese economic data. Three of the most important hard data series were reported: fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales. Each was lower than the previous month and missed expectations, suggesting…

Read More

Not QE? October 18, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Last week the Federal Reserve announced the re-commencement of large scale asset purchases in order to alleviate funding pressures that had been bubbling for several months. Much effort has been made by Fed Chairman Powell and other missionaries to explain why this round of asset…

Read More

Hard Data Gets Put to the Test October 03, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

United States and indeed global economic data have been weak – at least that is the unabated message from the PMI data that were released this week on both manufacturing and services. At this stage everyone knows the survey data, or “soft” data, are weak….

Read More

Confirmation of the Deterioration in Consumer Confidence September 25, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

In our mid-quarter update, we highlighted the plunge in the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence indicator, suggesting that “good feelings” among consumers were starting to fade. Often surveys offer a leading glimpse into economic activity. A more confident consumer is more likely to make those…

Read More

A Deep Dive into Consumer Confidence September 04, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

In this mid-quarter special report, we do a deep dive into the University of Michigan survey and discern what it may mean for the vigor of the consumer moving forward, prospects for a recession and consequences for asset allocation. Download the slides here: A Deep…

Read More

German Banks: Cutting Off Nose to Spite Face August 07, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

Today Germany’s second largest bank, Commerzbank, reported a fourth straight quarter of falling revenue and projected lower profit for the year, suggesting clients have been impacted by trade tensions. Chief Executive Officer Martin Zielke describes the situation: “Despite all the successes we have made, challenges…

Read More

Bad News is Good News on Payroll Friday July 03, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

All eyes will be on the payroll report on Friday for clues about what it means for the Fed’s next move. Indeed, the payroll report will be the most important US economic data point between now and the Fed’s next meeting at the end of…

Read More

Is the Fed Already Behind the Curve? June 27, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

To cut or not to cut is no longer the question. Now the question is the quantity, magnitude and timing of rate cuts for the rest of the year. This week was an important one in that we were privy to several important Fed speeches…

Read More