Economy

A Deep Dive into Consumer Confidence September 04, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

In this mid-quarter special report, we do a deep dive into the University of Michigan survey and discern what it may mean for the vigor of the consumer moving forward, prospects for a recession and consequences for asset allocation. Download the slides here: A Deep…

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German Banks: Cutting Off Nose to Spite Face August 07, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

Today Germany’s second largest bank, Commerzbank, reported a fourth straight quarter of falling revenue and projected lower profit for the year, suggesting clients have been impacted by trade tensions. Chief Executive Officer Martin Zielke describes the situation: “Despite all the successes we have made, challenges…

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Bad News is Good News on Payroll Friday July 03, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

All eyes will be on the payroll report on Friday for clues about what it means for the Fed’s next move. Indeed, the payroll report will be the most important US economic data point between now and the Fed’s next meeting at the end of…

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Is the Fed Already Behind the Curve? June 27, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

To cut or not to cut is no longer the question. Now the question is the quantity, magnitude and timing of rate cuts for the rest of the year. This week was an important one in that we were privy to several important Fed speeches…

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The Fed’s Many Options for Tomorrow June 18, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Tomorrow will obviously be one of the most important news days of the year for financial markets with the Fed expected at the very least to signal that a rate cutting cycle is in the offing. Indeed, since the Fed last raised rates the yield…

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Mid-Quarter Update & Slides: Escalation June 04, 2019

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

In this mid-quarter update, entitled “Escalation,” we discuss the backdrop of escalating trade wars and our belief that the environment is more favorable for US Treasury bonds relative to stocks. The trade war is escalating at a time of weakening global growth, thereby weighing further…

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The Latest Tariffs Come at a Time of Weakening Economic Growth May 10, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

The announced tariffs have come at a rather inopportune time, economically speaking. Back in 2018 when the US was slapping tariffs on washer machines and solar panels (January ’18), steel and aluminum (March ’18) and Chinese goods broadly (July ’18) the economy looked to be…

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