Economy

Mid-Quarter Update & Slides: Escalation June 04, 2019

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

In this mid-quarter update, entitled “Escalation,” we discuss the backdrop of escalating trade wars and our belief that the environment is more favorable for US Treasury bonds relative to stocks. The trade war is escalating at a time of weakening global growth, thereby weighing further…

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The Latest Tariffs Come at a Time of Weakening Economic Growth May 10, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

The announced tariffs have come at a rather inopportune time, economically speaking. Back in 2018 when the US was slapping tariffs on washer machines and solar panels (January ’18), steel and aluminum (March ’18) and Chinese goods broadly (July ’18) the economy looked to be…

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Is the Economic Slowdown Over or Just Getting Started? Part 2 March 01, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

In Part 1 of this series we talked about the lagged effect of interest rates and money growth, AKA “financial conditions” broadly speaking, on economic growth. We noted that changes in interest rates tend to impact economic growth with about a 2 year lag and…

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Currency Markets & Knightian Uncertainty February 08, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Knightian uncertainty is named after University of Chicago economist Frank Knight (1885–1972), who distinguished risk and uncertainty in his work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit: “Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated…. The essential fact is that ‘risk’ means…

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