Economy

Fed PMIs Were Almost Universally Weaker In January February 17, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

We had our first look at manufacturing conditions in February (NY Fed Empire Survey came in below consensus by a few points) and tomorrow we have the industrial production report for the US. What should we expect when that report comes out?

Positive Economic Surprises in Europe, Negative in the U.S. February 11, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The Citi Economic Surprise index is a quick way to get a high-level look at the condition of economic data around the world.

A Few Signs Are Pointing To A Lower US Savings Rate In 2015 February 06, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Since the depths of the financial crisis, the rebound in consumer credit has been polarized. On the one hand you have non-revolving consumer credit (i.e. car loans, student loans, etc.), which briefly declined on a year-over-year basis in 2009 and early 2010 before violently rebounding in 2011.

Inflation Expectations Have Increased Since Mid-January February 06, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Since January 15th, 5-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 23 basis points from 105 basis points to 138 basis points. 10-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 16 basis points during this time and 30-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 8 basis points since the beginning of February.

Real Trade-Weighted Dollar At A 141-Month High February 04, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The real trade-weighted exchange rate index against major currencies has reached its highest level at the end of January since April 2003. The broader index is currently at a 69-month high. The major currency index includes six currencies (Euro, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Pound Sterling, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc).

Digging Deeper into Deteriorating Sales and EPS Estimates January 28, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Analyst estimates of future corporate performance can be some of the most confusing financial data items out there in no small part due to the multitude of different ways of measuring them.

3-Month Change in EPS Growth Estimates Falling at Fastest Rate Since 2008 January 27, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

As we noted in our last post, the absolute level of EPS growth estimates has fallen to the lowest level since 2009 in North America and Europe, but has remained fairly stable in Asia and EMs.

Bond Yields, Crude, Copper all Fall to New Lows as Dow Plunges and Gold is Bid January 27, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The trend is your friend, so they say…as long as you are on the right side of it. That saying is particularly relevant to the trend in bond yields (30-year down 7bps) as today we get new all-time lows in the US long bond despite the large net short positioning of speculators.

Weak Close Indicator In Detail January 22, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Question: I am an avid reader of your blog site and I commend you on the truly great work. You always identify the bigger picture macro trends and thematics with clarity.

Have US Initial Unemployment Claims Bottomed? January 22, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

New initial unemployment claims fell slightly for the week ending on January 16th from 316K to 309K.

Is the Fed’s Liquidity Pump Responsible for Intraday Price Action? January 16, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Yesterday we highlighted that our Weak Stock Market Close Indicator indicator had surged to the highest level since 2012 and today a client made the good point that our Weak Stock Market Close indicator seemed to give more false signals when the Fed was engaging in QE.

Navigating High Stock Valuations in a Deflationary World January 14, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

As we highlighted yesterday, stock valuations jumped again in December to another cycle high. As the first two charts show, the cyclically adjusted P/E multiple has only been higher on several occasions and the median stock is trading at a record price to cash flow multiple as far back as we have data.

Asset Allocation: It’s Still All About The Fed January 13, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

While plans change, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it intends to begin raising interest rates in 2015. It spent most of 2014 laying the groundwork, managing the taper, and in 2015 it will continue to make preparations for lift-off.

Median Company Estimated Growth Slumps to Lowest Level Since 2013 January 12, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Following up on our earlier post today regarding estimate revisions, we thought we’d point out that both top and bottom line growth estimates have continued to fall in recent weeks and are at levels not seen since early 2013.

Intellectual Property Helps Boost 3Q GDP Growth To Highest Level Since 2003 December 24, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

As was widely reported yesterday, 3Q GDP growth was the strongest since 9/30/2003. However, less widely reported was the fact the intellectual property products contributed the most to real GDP in 32 quarters (9/30/2006). Fixed investment overall contributed 121 basis points to real GDP.

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