Economy

Is Inflation Starting to Impact Equity Returns? October 12, 2021

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

Fed funds futures for 2022 and 2023 have broken out to new highs, likely on the back of rising inflation expectations. As things stand now, the market is looking for three hikes by the end of 2023, with the effective fed funds moving from 8bps…

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Breakdown July 23, 2021

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Knowledge Leaders, Markets

We believe the technology sector is broadly breaking down. ​​​​​That’s the bad news. The good news is that the correlation between pure growth stocks and pure value stocks has plunged. This means that growth only explains about 5% of the movement in value stocks right…

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Get Ready for Services Prices to Accelerate Higher January 22, 2021

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

We’re going to keep this post short and sweet because the charts speak for themselves. Today, preliminary Markit PMIs were released for January. Headline numbers ticked up, which is great and shows a continued expansion into the new year. The release also showed that input…

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More Evidence of Stagflation in the PMIs December 16, 2020

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Markit’s preliminary December PMIs were released today and our takeaway is that they show the risk of some kind of stagflation is gaining a little steam. In both the manufacturing and services surveys, new business/new orders dropped while input prices rose. In the case of…

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Breakeven Inflation is Breaking Out December 04, 2020

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

Inflation expectations as priced by the Treasury market are hitting 18 month highs just now. As the reader can see, inflation expectations across all treasury maturities are at cycle highs. This is happening coincident with growing expectations for the $908bn bipartisan stimulus deal and widespread…

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