Economy

It’s Not Just Powell Pandering to Markets – Rate Cuts Are Necessary July 16, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

We have been surprised over recent weeks to read a slue of commentary proclaiming that the economy is in great shape and Fed Chairman Powell is just pandering to markets by signaling rate cut(s) in July and beyond. Specifically, “strong” readings from the employment report,…

Bad News is Good News on Payroll Friday July 03, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

All eyes will be on the payroll report on Friday for clues about what it means for the Fed’s next move. Indeed, the payroll report will be the most important US economic data point between now and the Fed’s next meeting at the end of…

Is the Fed Already Behind the Curve? June 27, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

To cut or not to cut is no longer the question. Now the question is the quantity, magnitude and timing of rate cuts for the rest of the year. This week was an important one in that we were privy to several important Fed speeches…

The Fed’s Many Options for Tomorrow June 18, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Tomorrow will obviously be one of the most important news days of the year for financial markets with the Fed expected at the very least to signal that a rate cutting cycle is in the offing. Indeed, since the Fed last raised rates the yield…

Here’s Why the 1998-99 Melt Up in Stocks is Not an Appropriate Analog June 07, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

As expectations for a Fed easing cycle have gained momentum, we’ve seen an abundance of comparisons between the current period and the late 1990s. In that period the Fed cut rates and stocks simultaneously levitated into the stratosphere. If we are to follow the logic…

Mid-Quarter Update & Slides: Escalation June 04, 2019

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

In this mid-quarter update, entitled “Escalation,” we discuss the backdrop of escalating trade wars and our belief that the environment is more favorable for US Treasury bonds relative to stocks. The trade war is escalating at a time of weakening global growth, thereby weighing further…

Risks For the Second Half of 2019 Are Mounting by the Day: Part 1 May 30, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

As we look into the second half of the year and into 2020, we are left with a fleeting feeling about the prospects for a cyclical uptick in growth and therefore earnings. The problem is not so much with the current pace of growth or…

The Latest Tariffs Come at a Time of Weakening Economic Growth May 10, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

The announced tariffs have come at a rather inopportune time, economically speaking. Back in 2018 when the US was slapping tariffs on washer machines and solar panels (January ’18), steel and aluminum (March ’18) and Chinese goods broadly (July ’18) the economy looked to be…

Emerging Market Stocks Underperform When the US Dollar Strengthens…Here’s Why May 02, 2019

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets, Portfolio Management

The relationship between the performance of emerging market stocks and the US dollar is one of the tightest macro relationships that exists in investing. As we can see in the first chart, the relative performance of EM stocks vs the S&P 500 is highly negatively…

Manufacturing Weakness Continues: A Review of US Economic Data April 16, 2019

Posted by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

So far this week, we’ve received a few data points that reinforce the manufacturing slowdown taking place in the US. Below is a calendar of events for the last couple days. On Monday, we got the Empire State Survey, a survey of manufacturing in New…

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Economy

It’s Not Just Powell Pandering to Markets – Rate Cuts Are Necessary July 16, 2019

Bad News is Good News on Payroll Friday July 03, 2019

Is the Fed Already Behind the Curve? June 27, 2019

The Fed’s Many Options for Tomorrow June 18, 2019

Here’s Why the 1998-99 Melt Up in Stocks is Not an Appropriate Analog June 07, 2019

Mid-Quarter Update & Slides: Escalation June 04, 2019

Risks For the Second Half of 2019 Are Mounting by the Day: Part 1 May 30, 2019

The Latest Tariffs Come at a Time of Weakening Economic Growth May 10, 2019

Emerging Market Stocks Underperform When the US Dollar Strengthens…Here’s Why May 02, 2019

Manufacturing Weakness Continues: A Review of US Economic Data April 16, 2019

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