Uncategorized

A Dramatic Change in the Liquidity Environment December 02, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

For the last six years of quantitative easing, commercial bank non-borrowed reserves have been a good proxy for liquidity.  These reserves have grown from under $50 billion in 2008 to $2.8 trillion at the peak a few months ago.

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World Inflation Falls To 59-Month Low December 01, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

All eyes seem to be on crude oil prices right now. Taking an average price of WTI and Brent as a proxy for global oil prices, oil is down over 33% year-to-date. In November alone, oil was down about 12%.

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Black Friday Special: How Do The Retailers Look? November 28, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

In honor of Black Friday, we thought we would look at how the North American retailers look from a technical perspective using our relative point and figure charts. Once again, our box size is  2.5% relative performance and all charts have four years worth of history.

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Spike In New Home Prices November 26, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

US new home sales underwhelmed again in October. The latest data point came in at 458K SAAR versus consensus of 470K. What really caught are eye was the volatile increase in average and median prices. The average sales price spiked by nearly 28% month-over-month, easily to an all-time high for this series.

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Margin Debt Declines For The 4th Time This Year November 25, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

NYSE margin debt declined by a little more than $10 billion in October. In 2012 and 2013, there were only three months that saw margin debt decline. So far in 2014, there have been four months. In 2011, there were six months with declining margin debt.

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Easy to Make Money When Everything is Up! November 21, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Today’s price action across all the major asset classes stands out as rather odd. Indeed, stocks are up pretty much everywhere around the world (US, Europe, Japan, China), bond prices are up (yields lower), commodities are higher (gold, energy, lumber, copper, CRB, some softs), and the USD is higher.

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Trends Developing In The Forex Market November 21, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

As most investors are aware, there have been some major currency moves recently (looking at you Yen/USD cross). This has established some interesting trends in the forex market. For example, volatility continues to rise off a very low base (unlike in the equity market).

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Intraday Volatility has Disappeared (Again) November 20, 2014

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Regular readers know that we have been harping on the lack of volatility all year (few posts here and here) so it should come as no surprise that we are, once again, calling out the absolute evaporation of intraday volatility in US stocks.

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