Beyond the Headline in Germany’s ZEW Survey
November 18, 2014
By Uncategorized in
Today’s release of the ZEW financial market survey for Germany revealed a surprising increase in economic expectations, compared to the consensus for a marginal improvement:
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/af1ae99aba4d4cf2b3d618bf54551c46.png)
chart note:
dark blue = balance
red = improve
light blue = no change
black = worsen
Meanwhile, the question on current economic conditions revealed no change from low levels reached a month ago:
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/fc37790eef6a489aadb5a10c4ccb7cfe.png)
Inflation expectations and the outlook for interest rates continue to fall, while hopes for an improvement in the DAX have risen, on balance:
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/12249e02a3e243afba2354c55bf71eec.png)
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/fe0302086d8748278af3c1130e63f182.png)
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/8c6c532ea938452bb48dd5f55af4e584.png)
Profit expectations are looking brighter in a few industries, led by large increases in the Machinery and Electronics groups.
Chemicals
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/f1e2434205ca4c7180f6975bf6ed56f0.png)
Information Technology
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/862da77116c14004b0136bae862a0258.png)
Consumer Goods & Retail
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/862a265d84744371bfef64c63535badd.png)
Services
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/9a8b171e1e5840a483e4d6351c0c0a35.png)
Machine Construction
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/4b42cf14935f4f6a9d9ff2295578e146.png)
Construction
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/d52d10d56f1f401ca0ee54221ca1126c.png)
Electronics
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/c78cb7c1d382420c96d622dae9ac56b2.png)
Telecommunications
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/5f66d856c33a41b0aa4973cec58d3030.png)
Conversely, the outlook for Financial, Utility, and Auto industries continues to be less promising, according to the 220 analysts queried in this month’s survey:
Vehicle Construction
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/b868a0729123495497ecee1ae8592c79.png)
Steel
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/015a831ecabc463caae2005ac6f57b1a.png)
Utilities
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/44b0c85688c74f69a882cd5af326626b.png)
Banks
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/1f5433fbed19436e8bb5095a57173596.png)
Insurance Companies
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/ed4047a149e74d97b29828665686e0de.png)
As the first in a long list of economic sentiment surveys, the question remains as to whether or not those in other countries will follow:
![image](http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/e0a23e4bd2a24ff08d793ec949635387.png)