China Tag

What’s Behind the Breakout in Gold?

20 Feb, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

This week’s breakout in gold is an epic expression of our times in which potential economic problems are quickly followed by massive actual and expected responses by central banks and governments. The problem de jour (for both markets and the public) is of course the...

Why Coronavirus is Scary for Financial Markets

31 Jan, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

As we write, US stocks are down about 1.6% on the day, foreign developed market stocks are down 1.8%, and emerging market stocks are down about 2.4%. This type of corrective action did not really come as a surprise to us. Indeed just two weeks...

Not So Fast on the Cyclical Chinese Recovery

14 Nov, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

This morning investors were unfortunately treated to a rather disappointing package of October Chinese economic data. Three of the most important hard data series were reported: fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales. Each was lower than the previous month and missed expectations, suggesting...

China is Doubling Down on State Directed Growth

16 May, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Over the weekend we got the monthly slue of Chinese data around fixed asset investment, credit creation, retail sales, and industrial production. Generally speaking, the data was soft, with misses in all categories. But one data point continues to stand out to us as evidence...

State of Affairs of the Chinese Corporate Sector – Part 1

02 May, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

The Chinese economic situation has been firmly out of the limelight for the better part of three months now as the country's fiscal kitchen sinking has shown obvious signs of ramping into gear. If the world's investors and economy watchers have breathed a collective sigh of...

Chinese Stocks Break Years-long Critical Support Line

15 Jan, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Before showing some rather unpleasant looking charts it's important to keep in mind the following two items. First, the domestic Chinese stock market is still by an large closed to foreigners. Extremely large institutional investors can only purchase Chinese shares through convoluted means and then...

2016 China Outlook in Charts: More Slowing Ahead

11 Jan, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

2015 was a year in which many investors were caught off guard by the continued slowing of Chinese growth and the commensurate shocks to the global financial system it created as the renminbi weakened, Chinese foreign exchange reserves declined further, and commodity prices accelerated to...

China Keeping the Dream Alive with Government Spending

14 Dec, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Reported central government spending in China, which is likely only a fraction of the actual level of state directed spending in the economy, has recently shot up to a new all-time high just as the reported economic growth rate has plunged to a low not...

How to Invest in a Slowing China World

13 Nov, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Portfolio Management

Yesterday we gave three reasons why the stabilization seen in China over the last several weeks is just a cyclical pause before the next leg of the slowdown starts anew. Those reasons were that: 1) The current stabilization is almost entirely due to fiscal stimulus totaling...