Citi Economic Surprise Index Tag

As Econ Data Slows, How High Can Rates Rise?

10 May, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Portfolio Management

From the middle of April through yesterday 10-year treasury rates rose from 2.17 to 2.40, prompting the obvious question of how high will they rise. The interesting thing about the recent slight backup in rates is that it has occurred within the context of slowing...

Where Positive Economic Surprises Are (And Aren’t) Happening

10 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

There is a geographic disparity amongst the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Economies, both developed and emerging, are surprising to the upside in Asia and Europe while economies in the western hemisphere are not doing as well (at least in terms of meeting and exceeding expectations)....

Most Economies Are Missing The Mark in 2014

23 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The Citi Economic Surprise Index is a useful data point in determining whether or not a country or a region are meeting economic expectations. Throughout 2014 actual data has come in below expectations for most of the developed market economies as well as for China...

US Economy “Surprising” To The Downside Over The Last 7 Weeks

07 Mar, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

While the headline payroll number this morning beat consensus (a funky report overall that was obviously affected by weather), over the past seven weeks the economic reports out of the United States have been underwhelming to say the least judging by the Citi Economic Surprise...

Positive Economic Surprises Are Back

15 Jan, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Recently each day, especially in the US, it has felt as if the economic data has been a bit better than expected. The Citi Economic Surprise Index corroborates that feeling as it has now reached it’s highest level since February 2012....

Mixed signals coming out of the US

31 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

There doesn’t seem to be a trend in the US economic releases recently. In the past week we have had weaker housing data (Pending Home Sales), an ok production data point (Industrial Production), below consensus employment report (ADP), a weaker regional survey (Dallas Fed), and...

Citi Economic Surpise Index & Counter-Cyclicals

16 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Normally cyclical sectors outperform counter-cyclical sectors when the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is rising and underperform when it is falling.  The Citi Econ Surprise Index is now down since 9/12/13, having fallen over 25 points....

MSCI Cyclical and Counter-Cyclical Baskets

08 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

We divide the MSCI World index into cyclical (including materials, industrials, technology and consumer discretionary, financials and energy) and counter-cyclical baskets (including consumer staples, health care, telecom, utilities).  The relative performance of cyclicals vs. counter-cyclicals generally improves when the economic news is improving and contracts...