The unemployment rate in the US has fallen from 9.1% to 6.7% in three years. In fact, the number of workers who have been out of work for less than five weeks (as a % of the labor force) is at all-time lows (1.46%). This...
We have noted before the strange divergence between the JOLTS employment data and the monthly nonfarm payroll employment data before. The latest JOLTS data indicates that this spread is closing. In other US economic news, industrial production rose 0.3% MoM in November, in line with...
Given the other positive data releases that we mentioned here and here earlier in the week, today’s headline payroll number is a bit of a stunner (74K vs estimates of 200k)....
On the heels of a solid ADP report yesterday, we had two more above average releases this morning. Initial jobless claims fell by 15,000 and the often watched four-week moving average dropped by almost 10,000. Challenger layoffs reported the lowest level of layoffs since June...
ADP showed a monthly increase of 238,000 jobs in December. This was the largest gain since November 2012. Perhaps most importantly for the labor market the gain was led by small firms (1-49 employees) which hired about 108,000 people in December. This was the largest...
Today’s employment and personal income and outlays reports may be strong enough for the Fed to begin tapering later this month. November employment came in at 203k jobs and the unemployment report dipped to a 5-year low (7%)....
ADP payroll data surprised to the upside today (215k vs 185k expected). It was the highest reading so far this year. Perhaps most encouragingly the gain was lead by small businesses. ISM Non-Manufacturing survey came in slightly below expectations (53.9 vs 55.5 expected)....
US JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Stats) is a useful employment indicator that doesn’t get as much attention as it’s nonfarm payroll cousin. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS data was designed to ”serve as a demand-side indicator of labor shortages”....
In today’s US economic releases, we saw signs of a rebound in employment (with a caveat), a pick up in manufacturing activity, and another data point signalling low inflation. Initial jobless claims dropped by 21k to 323k....
The percentage of small businesses that are planning to increase hiring fell back 4 percentage points to 5% in October. Unfortunately, in this recovery 10% of firms planning on increasing hiring has acted as an upper bound for this series....
Today’s employment report was…interesting. While the headline number of 204K jobs added in October was above expectations of 163K new jobs and has been widely read as welcome sign that the labor market is on the mend, the details were a little messier (to say...
The level of job openings has now been been basically unchanged since February. The job openings data may be signalling a stalling out of employment. Initial jobless claims fell by 12k but the prior week was revised up by 4k....
Our favorite statistic to look at whenever the monthly employment reports rolls around is actually 3 statistics multiplied together. We take Payroll Employment x Average Weekly Hours x Average Hourly Earnings to come up with a ”National Income Proxy”....
The MSCI World index is back to within 2% of an all-time high. Meanwhile the employment to population ratio in the US is languishing at levels not seen since 1983. In 1983, the Billboard top song was Every Breath You Take by the Police....
The Boom-Bust Barometer (Commodity Prices/Unemployment Claims) has had a very high correlation with stock prices over the past decade. The rise in unemployment claims has driven it lower. We will wait to see if the end of the government shutdown will bring unemployment claims back...
