employment Tag

A JOLT to Job Openings & Asset Expectations

11 Feb, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

This morning the monthly job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) report was released, and it came in significantly shy of expectations. While Bloomberg’s consensus estimate was for 6.925 million job openings, the actual number came in at 6.423. It is important to keep in mind...

Bad News is Good News on Payroll Friday

03 Jul, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

All eyes will be on the payroll report on Friday for clues about what it means for the Fed's next move. Indeed, the payroll report will be the most important US economic data point between now and the Fed's next meeting at the end of...

The Employment Report is Not All It’s Cracked up to Be

01 Feb, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Today's "blowout" employment report, while strong in some respects, should be taken with a grain of salt. It's important to remember that employment is a lagging indicator. Payroll employment often peaks either at the beginning or middle of recessions, so it provides virtually no warning...

A Contrary Opinion On The US Employment Report

06 Feb, by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

One of the main features of the current recovery is the drop in the potential growth rate.  In every other recovery since WW2, real GDP has risen back to potential as the recovery got going, thereby closing the output gap.  This time around, the output...

US Employment Report Chart Update

05 Dec, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Nonfarm payrolls came in well above expectations at 321K vs expectations of 230K for November. In addition, the previous two months were both upwardly revised by a total 44K jobs. Private nonfarm payrolls were up a very impressive 314K....

US Initial Unemployment Claims Make 14-Year Low

16 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to just 264K for the week of October 10th. This is the lowest level since April 14th, 2000. The non-seasonally adjusted series is now down 23% year-over-year. This is a positive sign that the US economy isn’t on the...

US Participation Rate Falls To 37-Year Lows

03 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

While the headline payroll numbers for September were positive, 248k vs 215k expected, and the August payroll number was revised much higher to 180K (from 142k), we are nonetheless very disappointed to see the participation drop to the lowest level since February 1977. The participation...

Job Openings Have Spiked In The US

08 Jul, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

We have another positive release for the US labor markets today as the number of job openings has increased by about 500k jobs in the past two months. According to the JOLTS report released this morning, the current level of 4.635 million jobs is the...

Mixed Bag Of US Economic Data Out Today

22 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

It has been a very quiet week on the US economic report front but today we finally have a string of high profile releases. We will take them in order of release times… Jobless Claims snapped back a sharp 28K jobs to 326k during the...

Job Openings At The Highest Level In 73 Months

08 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The JOLTS report came out today and shows that there are more job openings now than at anytime since January 2008. This is slightly higher than what the consensus was predicting. The total number of people who quit their job ticked up slightly in February...

A Visual Tour Of Today’s US Employment Report

04 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

The headline nonfarm payroll number for March came in slightly below consensus at 192K (consensus was looking for 206K). Perhaps more importantly, however, the prior two months were both revised higher by a total of 37K jobs....