The tale from some of the most cyclical and predictive economic indicators are telling investors two very different things at the moment. Copper, the metal with a PhD in economics is giving us the all-clear sign while lumber, which is perhaps only regarded as having...
WTI crude oil is at an interesting junction currently. As we write, the USD is on the precipice of a major breakout while WTI crude is just a few percent away from the its late-August lows. Meanwhile, the other most cyclically inclined commodities (copper, lumber) have...
We've had some run in stocks over the last several weeks. With today's rally US stocks are now nearly 13% above their late-August low and are in spitting distance of another all-time high. This would be great news if only other asset classes and the internal...
The last time 10 year TIPS derived breakeven inflation was this low in the autumn of 2010, lumber was around $200/ft. The break in inflation expectations since last August suggests lower lumber prices are ahead....
Ending a 66-day streak of consecutive days without a 1% down finish, the S&P500 finally succumbed to statistics as it lost about 1.2% today. Bonds and gold, on the other hand, rallied as the US 10-year treasury yield lost 7bps, the 30-year lost 6bps, and...
Lumber prices are now down nearly 21% from the December peak of $375/bft and are now trading at $297.6/btf. We’ve noted several times how lumber prices (a measure of the health of the US economy) have completely disconnected from stock prices, and today’s action confirms...
Stocks are once again departing from most other asset classes today as the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 rip higher while treasury yields and most hard commodities are down on the day, though higher than in early morning futures trading....
We’ve touched on this point here and here, so we’ll keep it brief. Lumber is making a new low today and continues to diverge from stocks. Lumber made a large divergence from stocks in 2011 and 2013....
We’ve noted several times in the last few weeks the ongoing weakness in lumber prices here, here and here. We watch lumber prices because lumber, being a largely domestically produced and consumed resource, can give a good early indication of changes in domestic economic activity....
Lumber was the weakest of the major commodities today as it dropped 1.8% to a seven month low and decisively below pretty good support at around $330. Lumber is now trading about 14% off its December peak, which is slightly worrying....
Copper made headlines last week as it plowed through multiple support areas to levels not seen since mid-2010. That move gave market watchers, including ourselves, pause since copper prices are an important leading economic indicator....
Over the last month, lumber prices have fallen by 10%. Over the last five years, lumber has been an interesting early warning sign for deflation concerns....
