We had our first look at manufacturing conditions in February (NY Fed Empire Survey came in below consensus by a few points) and tomorrow we have the industrial production report for the US. What should we expect when that report comes out?
Read MoreThe Citi Economic Surprise index is a quick way to get a high-level look at the condition of economic data around the world.
Read MoreSince the depths of the financial crisis, the rebound in consumer credit has been polarized. On the one hand you have non-revolving consumer credit (i.e. car loans, student loans, etc.), which briefly declined on a year-over-year basis in 2009 and early 2010 before violently rebounding in 2011.
Read More
Since January 15th, 5-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 23 basis points from 105 basis points to 138 basis points. 10-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 16 basis points during this time and 30-year TIPS derived breakeven inflation has increased 8 basis points since the beginning of February.
Read More
The real trade-weighted exchange rate index against major currencies has reached its highest level at the end of January since April 2003. The broader index is currently at a 69-month high. The major currency index includes six currencies (Euro, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Pound Sterling, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc).
Read More
Analyst estimates of future corporate performance can be some of the most confusing financial data items out there in no small part due to the multitude of different ways of measuring them.
Read More
As we noted in our last post, the absolute level of EPS growth estimates has fallen to the lowest level since 2009 in North America and Europe, but has remained fairly stable in Asia and EMs.
Read MoreThe trend is your friend, so they say…as long as you are on the right side of it. That saying is particularly relevant to the trend in bond yields (30-year down 7bps) as today we get new all-time lows in the US long bond despite the large net short positioning of speculators.
Read More
Question: I am an avid reader of your blog site and I commend you on the truly great work. You always identify the bigger picture macro trends and thematics with clarity.
Read MoreNew initial unemployment claims fell slightly for the week ending on January 16th from 316K to 309K.
Read More
Yesterday we highlighted that our Weak Stock Market Close Indicator indicator had surged to the highest level since 2012 and today a client made the good point that our Weak Stock Market Close indicator seemed to give more false signals when the Fed was engaging in QE.
Read MoreAs we highlighted yesterday, stock valuations jumped again in December to another cycle high. As the first two charts show, the cyclically adjusted P/E multiple has only been higher on several occasions and the median stock is trading at a record price to cash flow multiple as far back as we have data.
Read More
While plans change, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it intends to begin raising interest rates in 2015. It spent most of 2014 laying the groundwork, managing the taper, and in 2015 it will continue to make preparations for lift-off.
Read MoreFollowing up on our earlier post today regarding estimate revisions, we thought we’d point out that both top and bottom line growth estimates have continued to fall in recent weeks and are at levels not seen since early 2013.
Read More
As was widely reported yesterday, 3Q GDP growth was the strongest since 9/30/2003. However, less widely reported was the fact the intellectual property products contributed the most to real GDP in 32 quarters (9/30/2006). Fixed investment overall contributed 121 basis points to real GDP.
Read More