Economy

More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 7/31/2015 July 31, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

In today’s edition we highlight just a few data points: the South Korea Business Survey Index making a new low, Japan consumption expenditure having a very weak month, and Japan CPI headed back toward zero. The slowing of the biggest economy in Asia is really…

An Analysis of the Bifurcation of Chinese Growth in Sales and Debt from a Bottoms up Perspective July 28, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

To say that Chinese growth is slowing is a correct, yet overly simplistic description of the actual scenario that is playing out on the ground. Chinese growth is slowing, but the data tells us that the growth rates of certain sectors are becoming increasingly bifurcated….

More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 7/28/2015 July 28, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Today’s edition of our diary of weak Asian economic stats focuses on the recently released trade and industrial production numbers out of Thailand and the trade numbers from Hong Kong. The Thai economy is feeling the pain of the Chinese slowdown acutely even in the most…

More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 7/16/2015 July 16, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Yesterday saw a few more weaker data points out of Australia and South Korea that are worthy of mention. Namely, Australian consumer confidence dropped again to around the lowest it’s been since 2009 and South Korea unemployment remained at its cycle highs. No matter what…

More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 7/9/2015 July 09, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, News

Yesterday and today were host to a few more macro data points all signaling basically the same thing – a synchronized slowdown in Asia which appears to be driven by China. In the five charts below we show that Chinese CPI remains anemic while PPI…

More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 7/7/2015 July 07, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

It seems as though each day we see more evidence of China’s economic slowing affecting its neighbors. When a force as large as China slows dramatically, we should expect as much. Here are today’s regional economic releases: Taiwan YoY export growth hitting multi-year lows: Taiwan…

Is it Slowing China or Grexit That is Driving Financial Market Price Changes? July 06, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

While some of the post Greferendum moves in financial markets could have been and were predicted by the financial punditry – lower euro, lower stocks, lower US bond yields, higher gold – the real moves have appeared elsewhere. Indeed, as of this writing the euro…

China’s Economic Slowdown Starting to Affect its Neighbors June 26, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

The last few weeks has seen some notable weakness in a few economic indicators in peripheral Asian countries. We’ve noted the connection between falling Chinese industrial output and copper and oil prices for some time, but now the Chinese slowdown is being felt in things…

Japan Much Less Risky Than Europe From a Currency Perspective June 25, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Asset allocation decisions are best not made in a vacuum and thus a major consideration when investing internationally is the currency risk one is willing to accept (assuming unhedged positions). In today’s world of zero interest rates, the dominant factor in currency movements seems to be…

Are Staples and Health Care Poised for More Outperformance? June 22, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Today’s cyclical jolt aside, it appears from glancing at relative performance charts of growth counter-cyclicals (our code wording for the Consumer Staples and Health Care Sectors) that they could be poised for a relative performance breakout. Indeed, in all major regions of the world, growth…

Gentle Reminder of why the Chinese Economic Model is not Long-term Sustainable June 18, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

These statistics are not really news, but we thought we’d just remind readers of the perils of the Chinese economic model in its current state. In a simple phrase: Chinese debt is not getting the proverbial bang for the yuan that it used to. What…

Inflation Expectations Are Turning Back Over In The US May 28, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

TIPS derived breakeven inflation expectations have started to fall once again in May. For a little context, starting in last June, breakeven inflation started a steady march lower that lasted until January of this year. Since that time, we have seen a rebound in inflation…

Can Crude and Copper Keep Rallying with China Slowing? May 14, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Yesterday saw the monthly slue of Chinese economic stats and the key feature among them was the continued broad-based weakness. The weakness in some of these statistics has been so pronounced (some things like IP and retail sales are at levels near or below those…

Long-End Of US Yield Curve Suggests A Stronger Yen May 13, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The relationship between the Japanese Yen and the spread between the US 30-year treasury yield and US 10-year yield has had a very tight negative correlation (-0.85) over the past 10-years (since 1986 when the bond spread series begins the correlation is -0.61). Since the…

Has Sales Growth Peaked for the Cycle? May 11, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Sales growth estimates for companies around the world began sliding towards the middle of 2014 as the price of oil began its months-long setback. In the first chart below we show the average and median company’s next 12 month sales growth estimate for the MSCI…

Disclosures

The information presented here is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities. Some investments are not suitable for all investors, and there can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. Hyperlinks may be included in this message that provide direct access to other internet resources, including web sites. While we believe these links are to reliable sources, Knowledge Leaders Capital (“KLC”) has no control over the accuracy or content of information contained on these sites. Although we make every effort to ensure such links are accurate, up to date and relevant, we have no control over pages maintained by external providers. The views expressed by these external providers on their own web pages or on external sites they link to are not necessarily those of Knowledge Leaders Capital.

The information provided on this blog is for illustrative or example purposes only and should not be construed as KLC’s opinion or investment outlook. As of the most recent quarter end, the named companies may have been held by KLC. For full information including additional policies and full disclosures, please visit our website: KnowledgeLeadersCapital.com.

Any reference to Index performance does not represent the performance of any investment product offered by Knowledge Leaders Capital, LLC. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. The performance of client account may vary from the Index performance. Index returns shown are not reflective of actual investor performance nor do they reflect fees and expenses applicable to investing.

Companies are selected for “Spotlights” based on high levels of innovation activities in their respective industries and illustrate innovation being employed across all sectors and geographies. Spotlight selection is separate from stock selection by the investment team. Spotlights are not necessarily representative of investment opportunities and can be selected regardless of investment performance or inclusion as a KLC holding.