Economy

More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 7/31/2015 July 31, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

In today’s edition we highlight just a few data points: the South Korea Business Survey Index making a new low, Japan consumption expenditure having a very weak month, and Japan CPI headed back toward zero. The slowing of the biggest economy in Asia is really…

Read More

More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 7/28/2015 July 28, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Today’s edition of our diary of weak Asian economic stats focuses on the recently released trade and industrial production numbers out of Thailand and the trade numbers from Hong Kong. The Thai economy is feeling the pain of the Chinese slowdown acutely even in the most…

Read More

More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 7/16/2015 July 16, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

Yesterday saw a few more weaker data points out of Australia and South Korea that are worthy of mention. Namely, Australian consumer confidence dropped again to around the lowest it’s been since 2009 and South Korea unemployment remained at its cycle highs. No matter what…

Read More

More Evidence of China Slowing Permeating Asia – 7/7/2015 July 07, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy

It seems as though each day we see more evidence of China’s economic slowing affecting its neighbors. When a force as large as China slows dramatically, we should expect as much. Here are today’s regional economic releases: Taiwan YoY export growth hitting multi-year lows: Taiwan…

Read More

Japan Much Less Risky Than Europe From a Currency Perspective June 25, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Asset allocation decisions are best not made in a vacuum and thus a major consideration when investing internationally is the currency risk one is willing to accept (assuming unhedged positions). In today’s world of zero interest rates, the dominant factor in currency movements seems to be…

Read More

Are Staples and Health Care Poised for More Outperformance? June 22, 2015

Posted by Bryce Coward, CFA in Economy, Markets

Today’s cyclical jolt aside, it appears from glancing at relative performance charts of growth counter-cyclicals (our code wording for the Consumer Staples and Health Care Sectors) that they could be poised for a relative performance breakout. Indeed, in all major regions of the world, growth…

Read More

Inflation Expectations Are Turning Back Over In The US May 28, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

TIPS derived breakeven inflation expectations have started to fall once again in May. For a little context, starting in last June, breakeven inflation started a steady march lower that lasted until January of this year. Since that time, we have seen a rebound in inflation…

Read More

Can Crude and Copper Keep Rallying with China Slowing? May 14, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Yesterday saw the monthly slue of Chinese economic stats and the key feature among them was the continued broad-based weakness. The weakness in some of these statistics has been so pronounced (some things like IP and retail sales are at levels near or below those…

Read More

Long-End Of US Yield Curve Suggests A Stronger Yen May 13, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

The relationship between the Japanese Yen and the spread between the US 30-year treasury yield and US 10-year yield has had a very tight negative correlation (-0.85) over the past 10-years (since 1986 when the bond spread series begins the correlation is -0.61). Since the…

Read More

Has Sales Growth Peaked for the Cycle? May 11, 2015

Posted by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

Sales growth estimates for companies around the world began sliding towards the middle of 2014 as the price of oil began its months-long setback. In the first chart below we show the average and median company’s next 12 month sales growth estimate for the MSCI…

Read More