Bonds Tag

There is Something Rotten in China

22 May, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

One metric I look at fairly often for various countries is the relationship between the performance of stocks vs. bonds. The idea is straightforward enough: when stocks are outperforming bonds, it tends to be associated with a growing economy. When bonds are outperforming stocks, it...

Mid-Quarter Update: Prognosis Negative

28 Feb, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Markets, News

Widespread underperformance of Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks is a significant negative indicator for US stocks in our view. In this special report, we present charts of the 30 Dow stocks relative to long-duration US treasury bonds and gold for the last five years. Spoiler:...

4Q Growth Expectations Crashing: A Tailwind for Bonds

15 Nov, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy

Today’s US economic data releases have sent growth expectations plunging for fourth quarter GDP. First, retail sales ex-autos and gasoline rose only .1% in October, well below the .3% expectation. Second, industrial production fell twice as much as expected in October, dropping -.8% compared to...