Counter Cyclicals Tag

Copper, Oil and Cyclicals All Turning Lower Right on Cue

30 Mar, by Bryce Coward, CFA in Markets

The impressive rallies of late in the industrial commodities could be nearing their end. Both copper and oil are bumping up against substantial resistance at their own 200-day moving averages that have acted to put a lid on previous rallies. Meanwhile, and not coincidentally, the...

Inflation Expectations & Relative Performance

14 Apr, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

For about six weeks, between the middle of January and the first week of March, inflation expectations embedded in the US Treasury market bounced after declining for the second half of 2014....

Don’t Be Fooled: Counter-Cyclical Stocks Still Outperforming

03 Mar, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Markets

This year, especially in February, there has been something of a cyclical bounce in the developed country stock markets. Since the beginning of the year, counter-cyclical stocks have underperformed cyclical stocks by 75 basis points in the MSCI World Index....

Two Things In Favor of Counter-Cyclicals

28 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

We divide all stocks into two baskets: 1) cyclicals, which includes consumer discretionary, industrials, materials, technology and financials; 2) counter cyclicals, which includes health care, consumer staples, telecom and utilities.  Generally the cyclical basket performs best when economic data comes in on the strong side...

Citi Economic Surpise Index & Counter-Cyclicals

16 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

Normally cyclical sectors outperform counter-cyclical sectors when the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is rising and underperform when it is falling.  The Citi Econ Surprise Index is now down since 9/12/13, having fallen over 25 points....

MSCI Cyclical and Counter-Cyclical Baskets

08 Oct, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Uncategorized

We divide the MSCI World index into cyclical (including materials, industrials, technology and consumer discretionary, financials and energy) and counter-cyclical baskets (including consumer staples, health care, telecom, utilities).  The relative performance of cyclicals vs. counter-cyclicals generally improves when the economic news is improving and contracts...