Economy Tag

There is Something Rotten in China

22 May, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

One metric I look at fairly often for various countries is the relationship between the performance of stocks vs. bonds. The idea is straightforward enough: when stocks are outperforming bonds, it tends to be associated with a growing economy. When bonds are outperforming stocks, it...

European Markets Grapple with Nagging Reality

23 Feb, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy, Markets

Investor concerns over the potential for poor European growth in the foreseeable future have eased thanks to the flurry of economic data coming out stronger than expected this year. That same data though has led investors to again fear what they thought was behind them...

Inversion

20 Dec, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets

In a recent San Francisco Federal Reserve Publication titled “Monetary Policy Stance is Tighter Than Fed Funds Rate,” the authors argue that the “all in” policy rate is actually higher than the Fed Funds rate would suggest. They open: “The Federal Reserve’s use of forward...

The Deus ex Machina Scenario

19 Aug, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Economy, Markets, News

Given all the confusion in the world around COVID, supply chains, inflation dynamics and war, there are lots of potential externalities that could resolve themselves unexpectedly. We call this the Deus ex Machina scenario. Our analysis follows in our Mid-Quarter Update. Prefer to download this presentation in...

Quarterly Update & Outlook: Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Indexes

03 Aug, by Steven Vannelli, CFA in Knowledge Leaders

We're pleased to present our first quarterly commentary on the Gavekal Knowledge Leaders Indexes, the intellectual property behind our new strategic beta products. As a data driven firm, we spend significant time working with data, from sourcing it to scrubbing it to identify Knowledge Leaders,...

US Corporate Profit Margins Are Coming Back Down To Earth

29 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in News

Today wasn't the best day for US economic releases. The 2nd revision of 1Q GDP was (unsurprisingly) revised down from 0.2% to -0.7%. The release that caught our eye, however, was the initial release of corporate profits in the US for the first quarter. After-tax...

Inflation Expectations Are Turning Back Over In The US

28 May, by Knowledge Leaders Team in Economy

TIPS derived breakeven inflation expectations have started to fall once again in May. For a little context, starting in last June, breakeven inflation started a steady march lower that lasted until January of this year. Since that time, we have seen a rebound in inflation...